Brokerage : Kiwoom Securities
Analyst : Jun-soo Kwon
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 820,000 (Raised)
Core Momentum : Driven by strong demand in ESS and small-battery BBUs alongside a projected 4Q26 profit turnaround, medium- to long-term valuation re-rating is supported by visible market share recovery in Europe by 2028.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained), Target Price KRW 820,000 (Raised by shifting the valuation base year to 2028, when order backlogs and European EV market share recovery become fully visible)
- Market Data (As of 2026-04-28): Current Price KRW 680,000, Market Cap KRW 54.80 Trillion, KOSPI 6,641.02pt, Shares Outstanding 80,586 Thousand, Foreign Ownership 25.4%
- Key Financial Forecasts (2025 → 2026F → 2027F):
- Revenue: KRW 13.27 Trillion → KRW 15.01 Trillion (YoY +13%) → KRW 18.82 Trillion
- Operating Profit: KRW -1.72 Trillion → KRW -247.6 Billion (Loss Narrowed) → KRW 1.30 Trillion (Turnaround)
- EBITDA: KRW 380.6 Billion → KRW 2.17 Trillion → KRW 3.78 Trillion
- Pre-tax Profit: KRW -1.36 Trillion → KRW 373.8 Billion (Turnaround) → KRW 1.87 Trillion
- Net Profit (Controlling): KRW -649.5 Billion → KRW 267.7 Billion (Turnaround) → KRW 1.34 Trillion
- EPS: KRW -8,325 → KRW 3,256 (Turnaround) → KRW 16,274
- Operating Margin (OPM): -13.0% → -1.6% → 6.9%
- ROE: -3.2% → 1.2% → 5.7%
- PER / PBR: -32.4x / 1.03x → 208.8x / 2.49x → 41.8x / 2.28x
- EV/EBITDA: 314.4x → 30.5x → 17.5x
- Net Debt-to-Equity: 38.4% → 35.5% → 31.3%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 1Q26 Earnings Review: Revenue stood at KRW 3.6 Trillion (QoQ -7%, YoY +13%) and Operating Loss was KRW -155.6 Billion (Loss continued QoQ/YoY), beating market consensus (Operating Loss KRW -257.6 Billion). Despite seasonal softness, loss reduction was driven by rising demand for BBUs and professional power tools, ESS margin improvements, expanded AMPC credits (KRW 80.5 Billion), high-value cylindrical mix, and client compensation (estimated under KRW 100.0 Billion).
- 2Q26 Earnings Outlook: Projected Revenue of KRW 3.6 Trillion (QoQ +1%, YoY +14%) and Operating Loss of KRW -77.6 Billion (Loss narrowing QoQ). Sequential profit improvements will continue backed by Hyundai/Kia model ramp-ups (EV2, Ioniq3), US Stellantis shipments to Europe, and steady ESS/BBU shipments offsetting BMW volume dips.
- Medium- to Long-Term Order Pipeline & Re-rating:
- 4Q26 Inflection: Operating performance has been recovering since the 3Q25 trough, with a return to quarterly operating profit projected in 4Q26.
- European Share Expansion: Favorable policy shifts (IAA, CRMA) and formalizing EV orders (Mercedes-Benz, BMW 46-series, VW LFP) enhance visibility for medium- to long-term European market share recovery.
- Portfolio Breadth: Positive momentum supported by data center power solutions (ESS, UPS, BBU) and asset utilization plans involving the Samsung Display (SDC) stake.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung SDI as a battery manufacturer confirming an operational earnings recovery post-1Q consensus beat, positioned to achieve a 4Q26 profit turnaround and long-term market share gains in Europe by 2028, supported by expanding ESS and BBU demand. This perspective places primary importance on the long-term earnings visibility unlocking in 2028 through European OEM platform wins (Mercedes-Benz, BMW, VW) and data center power solutions (ESS/UPS/BBU), rather than near-term quarterly operating losses.
To assess the continuing validity of this investment thesis, key monitoring factors include the achievement of an operating profit turnaround in 4Q26, the formalization of new OEM contracts in Europe (such as Mercedes-Benz and BMW 46-series), and the revenue scaling of AI data center-oriented BBU and ESS solutions. These execution milestones can be verified through upcoming quarterly earnings announcements, official company IR releases, and statutory regulatory filings.
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Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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