Brokerage : Kyobo Securities
Analyst : Hee-ryung Jung
Investment Rating : Buy (Maintain)
Target Price : KRW 260,000 (Maintain)
Core Momentum : Market overreaction regarding ABL001 clinical readouts countered by potential new Grabody-B platform deals and upcoming full data presentation for ABL111
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: Rating Buy (Maintain), Target Price KRW 260,000 (Maintain), Current Price KRW 139,400 (As of 2026-04-28)
- Pipeline Valuation Breakdown (ABL001): Estimated at KRW 238.0 Billion (Assumptions: USD 1.0 Billion 2L biliary tract cancer market, 85% Tovecimig addressable patients, 20% Peak M/S, launch in 2028)
- Financial Forecasts & Historicals:
- 2024.12: Revenue KRW 33 Billion (YoY -49.0%), Operating Profit KRW -59 Billion (OP Margin -178.8%), Net Profit KRW -56 Billion, EPS KRW -1,156, PBR 9.7x, ROE -46.0%, EV/EBITDA -23.6x
- 2025.12: Revenue KRW 79 Billion (YoY +137.6%), Operating Profit KRW -40 Billion (OP Margin -50.6%), Net Profit KRW -38 Billion, EPS KRW -734, PBR 71.3x, ROE -23.5%, EV/EBITDA -296.9x
- 2026.12E: Revenue KRW 89 Billion (YoY +12.0%), Operating Profit KRW -12 Billion (OP Margin -13.5%), Net Profit KRW -3 Billion, EPS KRW -46, PBR 28.9x, ROE -1.2%, EV/EBITDA -831.5x
- 2027.12E: Revenue KRW 96 Billion (YoY +8.0%), Operating Profit KRW -29 Billion (OP Margin -30.2%), Net Profit KRW -20 Billion, EPS KRW -354, PBR 32.6x, ROE -7.8%, EV/EBITDA -292.4x
- 2028.12E: Revenue KRW 102 Billion (YoY +6.0%), Operating Profit KRW -34 Billion (OP Margin -33.3%), Net Profit KRW -23 Billion, EPS KRW -402, PBR 40.0x, ROE -10.4%, EV/EBITDA -250.0x
- Stock Metrics: Capital Stock KRW 27.6 Billion, Market Cap KRW 7,804.7 Billion, Outstanding Common Shares 55.99 Million shares, Par Value KRW 500, 52-Week High/Low KRW 245,500 / KRW 59,700, 60-Day Avg Daily Trading Value KRW 87.6 Billion, Foreign Ownership 12.95%, Major Shareholders Sang Hoon Lee & 11 affiliated parties (24.52%)
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- ABL001 Phase 2/3 Clinical Results & Regulatory Path:
- Partner Compass Therapeutics reported Phase 2/3 secondary endpoints (OS and PFS) in 2L biliary tract cancer.
- PFS was 4.7 months, showing a 2.1-month improvement over paclitaxel monotherapy.
- OS failed to achieve statistical significance due to a high crossover rate (31 of 57 patients, 54%), though RPSFT-adjusted OS was 8.9 months for Tovecimig + paclitaxel vs. 6.1 months for paclitaxel monotherapy.
- Compass plans to hold an FDA meeting after further endpoint analysis; if discussions are favorable, BLA filing is targeted for late 2026 via an accelerated approval pathway based on ORR/PFS (noting potential delays if standard-of-care precedents like FOLFOX necessitate OS benefit).
- Valuation Impact & Additional Catalysts:
- The ~20% post-readout share price drop is viewed as an overreaction relative to intrinsic value even if ABL001 pipeline value is fully discounted.
- Key momentum drivers include additional licensing deal potential for the Grabody-B platform and the planned release of full clinical data for ABL111 within the year.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The covering analyst views ABL Bio not as an entity vulnerable to single-asset clinical readout volatility, but as an established bispecific antibody platform biotech whose underlying intrinsic value is anchored by Grabody-B and a diversified pipeline. This perspective prioritizes core platform deal execution capability and subsequent clinical asset milestones over near-term market sentiment driven by trial endpoint debates.
To verify whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, primary focus should be directed toward the outcome of Compass’s FDA meeting regarding ABL001’s regulatory path and BLA filing status, the presentation of full clinical data for ABL111 within the year, and the execution of new out-licensing agreements based on the Grabody-B platform. These developments can be monitored through corporate IR releases, partner regulatory updates, and official public disclosures.
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Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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