Brokerage : Shinhan Securities
Analyst : Minyong Eom, Seokhyeon Yoon
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 480,000 (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : First Kosdaq biotech to execute 3 global pharma L/O deals in a single year (KRW 1.8 Trillion combined), paired with Keytruda SC conversion tracking faster than market expectations and extensive H2 clinical pipeline milestones.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / Target Price KRW 480,000 (Upgraded) (Upside potential of 73.3% based on the August 5, 2026 closing price of KRW 277,000)
- Market Data: Market Cap KRW 14.84 Trillion / Shares Outstanding 69.7 Million (Floating Shares 79.6%) / Foreign Ownership 14.4% / 52-Week High KRW 430,124, Low KRW 206,213 / 60-Day Average Trading Value KRW 182.9 Billion / Major Shareholders: Soonjae Park and 4 affiliates 20.3%, Inwoo Hyung and 2 affiliates 5.1%
- Annual Financial Forecast (Shinhan Securities Estimates):
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 378.9 Billion, Operating Profit KRW 214.3 Billion (OPM 56.6%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 239.7 Billion, PER 81.1x, PBR 29.8x, ROE 43.7%, EV/EBITDA 65.0x, Dividend Yield 0.2%
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 725.8 Billion, Operating Profit KRW 535.4 Billion (OPM 73.8%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 498.2 Billion, PER 39.0x, PBR 17.5x, ROE 56.5%, EV/EBITDA 25.8x, Dividend Yield 0.2%
- 2028F: Revenue KRW 882.1 Billion, Operating Profit KRW 711.8 Billion (OPM 80.7%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 618.8 Billion, PER 31.4x, PBR 11.5x, ROE 44.2%, EV/EBITDA 18.6x, Dividend Yield 0.2%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Record 3 Out-Licensing Deals in a Single Year & Asset Quality:
- On August 5, finalized a KRW 520.0 Billion agreement, bringing total 2026 out-licensing deals to 3 (GSK, Biogen, and the new partner) totaling KRW 1.8 Trillion. Total cumulative disclosed contract value reached KRW 11.0 Trillion.
- The undisclosed licensed molecule is estimated to be a market-leading global blockbuster with annual sales of KRW 7–8 Trillion; undisclosed status is likely due to direct competition with Halozyme’s partnered assets.
- Accelerating Keytruda SC Prescription Transition:
- Prescription conversion reached 9% within 3 months of permanent J-code assignment in April. Q2 revenue reached USD 463 Million (~KRW 662.1 Billion, +262% QoQ), with H1 cumulative revenue surpassing USD 590 Million (~KRW 843.7 Billion).
- With July conversion tracking at minimum 10% and December projected to exceed 15%, commercial adoption is proceeding faster than initial market expectations.
- Assuming full-year sales reach KRW 3–4 Trillion (7%–9% conversion), Alteogen is positioned to collect approximately KRW 200.0 Billion in commercial sales milestones (assuming 4%–5% rate) within 2026.
- H2 Pipeline Expansion & Regulatory Tailwinds:
- Active clinical trials include Daiichi Sankyo’s Enhertu SC (ADC) Phase 1, AZ’s Imfinzi SC and rilvegostomig SC (bispecific) Phase 1; Sanofi’s high-dose Dupixent SC (2025 revenue KRW 25 Trillion) is completing Phase 1 and entering Phase 3 in H2.
- Additional H2 Phase 1 clinical initiations planned for partners including GSK, Biogen, and Sandoz. The company remains the Top Pick in the Kosdaq sector.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Alteogen as the premier Kosdaq biotech leader that has validated its platform scalability by achieving a record three global pharma out-licensing deals in a single year (KRW 1.8 Trillion combined) and delivering a Keytruda SC adoption pace that is proceeding faster than market expectations. The overarching perspective prioritizes the cumulative contract portfolio surpassing KRW 11 Trillion and the impending commercial/clinical inflection points—such as Dupixent SC Phase 3 entry and extensive Phase 1 starts across GSK, Biogen, and Sandoz—over minor mechanical adjustments in financial estimates.
To verify whether this investment thesis progresses as expected, investors should primarily monitor Keytruda SC conversion rates exceeding 15% in the US by year-end, the actual inflow of ~KRW 200 Billion in annual sales milestones, the formal initiation of Sanofi’s Dupixent SC Phase 3 clinical trials in H2, and Phase 1 trial initiations across partnered programs with GSK, Biogen, and Sandoz. These developments can be verified through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official company IR presentations, regulatory filings on DART/KRX, and global partner pipeline updates.
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