Brokerage : SK Securities
Analyst : Hyung-wou Park
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 810,000 (Raised)
Core Momentum : Building a sequential earnings recovery path led by expanding North American ESS capacity, rising utilization rates (1Q 45% → 2H 65%), new EV program shipments, and higher AMPC recognition.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained), Target Price KRW 810,000 (Raised by applying a historical upcycle average P/B multiple of 3.0x from 2021–2022 to 2026F BPS)
- Market Data (As of 2026-04-28): Current Price KRW 680,000 (Upside Potential 19.1%), Market Cap KRW 54.80 Trillion, Shares Outstanding 80.59 Million, Foreign Ownership 25.35%
- 2026 Full-Year Forecasts (New Estimates vs Consensus):
- Revenue: KRW 16.07 Trillion (+6% vs consensus KRW 15.11 Trillion)
- Operating Profit: KRW -2.0 Billion (Loss narrowed vs consensus KRW -383.0 Billion)
- Net Profit (Controlling): KRW 375.0 Billion (+195% vs consensus KRW 127.0 Billion)
- Valuation Insight: The current 2026F P/B multiple of 2.5x leaves meaningful upside potential relative to historical levels and global peers.
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 1Q26 Earnings Review: Operating loss stood at KRW -155.6 Billion (Loss narrowed YoY), beating market expectations (KRW -257.6 Billion) by approximately KRW 100.0 Billion. Around half of the beat stemmed from OEM compensation, while the remainder was driven by higher small battery sales and margin improvement in UPS-centric ESS. Total AMPC recognized was KRW 80.5 Billion (EV KRW 40.2 Billion, ESS KRW 40.3 Billion). Real EV shipments grew slightly after excluding one-off compensation.
- 2026 Growth Drivers (Three Core Pillars):
- ESS Segment: 2Q revenue is projected to grow over 10% QoQ. Full-year growth will accelerate through North American capacity expansion (full-year NCA 7GWh operations + LFP 12GWh mass production starting 4Q26).
- Small Batteries: Continued recovery in power tools and rising BBU demand for data centers (2026 full-year BBU revenue estimated in the low-to-mid KRW 600 Billion range).
- EV & Utilization Rates: Muted through 1H26, but set to rebound in 2H26 on new model shipments starting in June and AMPC expansion. Overall plant utilization is expected to improve sequentially from 40–50% in 1Q26 to 60–70% in 2H26.
- 2026 Full-Year AMPC Projection: KRW 469.1 Billion (EV KRW 193.0 Billion, ESS KRW 276.1 Billion).
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung SDI as a battery manufacturer navigating through cyclical EV downturns by expanding North American ESS capacity, capturing BBU small-battery demand, and executing a gradual recovery in factory utilization (from 40–50% in 1Q to 60–70% in 2H). This perspective places primary importance on operational leverage from rising plant utilization and policy-driven AMPC earnings generation in North America, rather than near-term losses in pure EV automotive segments.
To track the ongoing validity of this investment thesis, key monitoring factors include the commercial launch and yield stabilization of the US LFP ESS line (12GWh) in 4Q26, the tangible recovery of company-wide plant utilization toward the 60–70% range in 2H26, and the actual quarterly realization of the projected KRW 469.1 Billion in annual AMPC credits. These execution milestones can be verified through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR presentations, and periodic regulatory filings.
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