Market: KOSPI (000660)
Brokerage : Kiwoom Securities
Analyst : Yuak Pak
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintain)
Target Price : 1,300,000 KRW (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : Sharp legacy DRAM and NAND price increases are driving substantial earnings upgrades, while the memory cycle is expected to transition from price-led gains toward CapEx-supported volume growth as profitability strengthens.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Target Price / Investment Rating: 1,300,000 KRW / BUY (Maintain)
- Current Price (as of 2/27): 1,061,000 KRW
- Market Capitalization: 75,617.7 billion KRW (7,561,772 million KRW / KOSPI 6,244.13pt)
- Key Financial Metrics (2023 / 2024 / 2025F / 2026F):
- Revenue: 32,766 billion KRW / 66,193 billion KRW / 97,147 billion KRW / 230,200 billion KRW
- Operating Profit: -7,730 billion KRW / 23,467 billion KRW / 47,206 billion KRW / 170,077 billion KRW
- Pre-tax Income: -11,658 billion KRW / 23,885 billion KRW / 50,465 billion KRW / 172,796 billion KRW
- Net Income: -9,138 billion KRW / 19,797 billion KRW / 42,948 billion KRW / 134,350 billion KRW
- EPS: -12,517 KRW / 27,182 KRW / 58,970 KRW / 184,469 KRW
- PER: -11.3x / 6.4x / 11.0x / 5.8x
- PBR: 1.9x / 1.7x / 4.1x / 3.1x
- ROE: -15.6% / 31.1% / 45.1% / 73.5%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Robust 1Q26 Earnings Expectations: First-quarter revenue is estimated at 45.9 trillion KRW (+40% QoQ) and operating profit at 32.3 trillion KRW (+69% QoQ), beating market consensus. Price forecasts for legacy DRAM and NAND have been revised upward by roughly +65% QoQ, driving substantial profit expansion.
- Upward Revision of FY2026 Operating Profit to 170 Trillion KRW: Full-year earnings have been raised to 230 trillion KRW in revenue and 170 trillion KRW in operating profit (+260% YoY). The blended DRAM ASP growth forecast was lifted to +86% YoY (legacy DRAM up +145% YoY), while NAND price projections were raised to +135% YoY.
- Inflection Point in the Memory Cycle: The steep price rally in legacy memory is approaching its final phase, signaling a transition toward a cycle driven by CapEx expansion and volume growth backed by enhanced profitability.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst evaluates that as AI momentum broadens into the NAND sector, surging prices across legacy memories are fueling massive earnings upgrades, pushing the 2026 operating profit target to 170 trillion KRW. This perspective highlights the importance of anticipating a structural shift in the memory cycle from price-led gains to volume-driven expansion.
To determine whether this investment thesis is unfolding as projected, key items to monitor include the delivery of 32.3 trillion KRW in Q1 operating profit, the sustainability of price hikes across mobile and server memory, and shipment growth backed by increased CapEx. These developments can be tracked through upcoming quarterly and annual earnings releases, official corporate IR materials, and regulatory disclosures via DART/KRX.
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