Brokerage : Hanwha Investment & Securities
Analyst : Yong-wook Lee, Ye-jin Go (RA)
Investment Rating : Buy (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 430,000 (Raised)
Core Momentum : Passing an operational trough following 4Q25 earnings resilience, supported by rapid growth in US ESS shipments (+70–80% YoY) and 4Q26 North American LFP production maximizing AMPC credits toward a quarterly turnaround.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: Buy (Maintained), Target Price KRW 430,000 (Raised)
- Market Data (As of 2026-02-02): Current Price KRW 356,000 (Upside Potential 20.8%), Market Cap KRW 28.69 Trillion, Shares Outstanding 80,586 Thousand, Foreign Ownership 23.7%
- Key Financial Forecasts (2025P → 2026E → 2027E):
- Revenue: KRW 13.27 Trillion → KRW 15.48 Trillion → KRW 21.14 Trillion
- Operating Profit: KRW -1.72 Trillion → KRW -577.0 Billion (Loss Narrowed) → KRW 1.60 Trillion (Turnaround)
- EBITDA: KRW 401.0 Billion → KRW 1.82 Trillion → KRW 4.04 Trillion
- Net Profit (Controlling): KRW -649.0 Billion → KRW -411.0 Billion (Loss Narrowed) → KRW 954.0 Billion (Turnaround)
- EPS: KRW -8,427 → KRW -5,342 (Loss Narrowed) → KRW 12,333 (Turnaround)
- ROE: -3.2% → -2.0% → 4.6%
- PER / PBR: -28.1x / 0.9x → -66.6x / 1.4x → 28.9x / 1.4x
- EV/EBITDA: 65.5x → 21.5x → 9.7x
- Net Debt: KRW 9.78 Trillion → KRW 10.11 Trillion → KRW 10.08 Trillion
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 4Q25 Earnings Review & 1Q26 Outlook:
- 4Q25 Review: Revenue reached KRW 3.9 Trillion and Operating Loss was KRW -292.2 Billion (Loss of KRW -379.0 Billion excluding AMPC), beating lowered market consensus. Client compensation and record ESS sales from the STLA JV ramp-up supported results.
- 1Q26 Outlook: Projected Revenue of KRW 3.5 Trillion and Operating Loss of KRW -289.6 Billion (Loss of KRW -386.7 Billion excluding AMPC). Automotive battery revenue is forecast to drop 22% QoQ on compensation base effects, but ESS margins are expected to improve to OPM 4% (including AMPC) as one-off costs expire.
- 2026 Turnaround Drivers & Medium-Term Catalysts:
- Annual Volume Growth: Full-year shipments are forecast to expand +24% YoY, led by US ESS shipments projected to surge +70–80% YoY.
- EV & Cylindrical Recovery: Ongoing demand recovery in European EV and power tool cylindrical cells, alongside entry expectations for Hyundai/Kia mass-market EV models.
- 4Q26 Operating Inflection: Mass production of North American LFP lines starting in 4Q26 is set to maximize AMPC benefits, driving expectations for a quarterly operating profit turnaround. Financial stability is supported by disciplined CapEx and potential SDC stake utilization.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung SDI as a battery manufacturer moving past its cyclical trough with limited further downside, having absorbed the bulk of client churn and sector headwinds. This perspective emphasizes that surging US ESS shipment growth (+70–80% YoY) and the 4Q26 startup of North American LFP lines maximizing AMPC credits outweigh the temporary revenue dip caused by expired 1Q client compensation.
To evaluate the ongoing validity of this investment thesis, key monitoring factors include the quarterly execution of US ESS deliveries supporting the projected +24% YoY full-year shipment expansion, progress on battery supply programs for Hyundai/Kia mass-market EVs, and the timely commercial ramp-up of the North American LFP line in 4Q26. These operational milestones can be verified through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official company IR presentations, and periodic statutory filings.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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