Brokerage : Shinhan Securities
Analyst : Jin-myung Lee, Myung-joo Kim
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 800,000 (Raised)
Core Momentum : Rapid growth in US grid ESS demand and robust cylindrical BBU orders, paired with 2H26 European volume EV launches and North American LFP capacity ramp-up, drive a projected operating profit turnaround in 4Q26.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained), Target Price KRW 800,000 (Raised by +38% reflecting upward earnings revisions (+35%) and target peer multiple expansion from 13x to 15x)
- Market Data (As of 2026-04-28): Current Price KRW 680,000 (Upside Potential 17.6%), Market Cap KRW 54.80 Trillion, Shares Outstanding 80.6 Million, Foreign Ownership 25.7%
- Key Financial Forecasts (2025 → 2026F → 2027F):
- Revenue: KRW 13.27 Trillion → KRW 15.41 Trillion → KRW 19.79 Trillion
- Operating Profit: KRW -1.72 Trillion → KRW -228.1 Billion (Loss Narrowed) → KRW 1.34 Trillion (Turnaround)
- Net Profit (Controlling): KRW -649.5 Billion → KRW 322.0 Billion (Turnaround) → KRW 1.83 Trillion
- ROE: -3.2% → 1.6% → 8.1%
- PER / PBR: -x / 1.0x → 157.1x / 2.6x → 30.5x / 2.4x
- EV/EBITDA: 87.1x → 28.0x → 15.7x
- Revisions: Earnings Forecast Revised Upward, Valuation Multiple Revised Upward
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 1Q26 Earnings Review: Operating loss stood at KRW -155.6 Billion (Loss narrowed QoQ), beating market consensus (KRW -257.6 Billion).
- Mid-to-Large Batteries: Revenue reached KRW 2.3 Trillion (QoQ -14%) and Operating Loss narrowed to KRW -77.8 Billion. EV revenue declined (-20% QoQ) due to expired one-offs, but losses narrowed on higher utilization and AMPC recognition. ESS turned profitable supported by US/domestic capacity expansion, improved product mix, and AMPC credits (KRW 44.3 Billion).
- Small Batteries: Revenue grew +13% QoQ with narrowed losses, fueled by robust demand for data center BBU and power tools.
- Electronic Materials: Slowed QoQ on off-peak seasonality, but expanded YoY on semiconductor recovery.
- 2H26 Catalysts & Structural Drivers:
- ESS & EV Pipeline: Ongoing surge in US ESS demand (+84% YoY during Jan–Mar) and 4Q26 North American LFP capacity startup will drive higher AMPC benefits. EV business is set for a second-half weighted recovery on European volume model launches.
- Additional Catalysts: Operating profit turnaround anticipated in 4Q26, with medium-term re-rating potential supported by the potential Samsung Display (SDC) stake monetization (within the year) and all-solid-state battery mass production (2H27).
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung SDI as a turnaround battery manufacturer advancing toward a 4Q26 operating profit inflection, underpinned by surging US grid ESS demand and robust cylindrical cell orders for AI data center BBUs. This perspective emphasizes that securing a dedicated ESS growth base through US line conversions and regaining European EV market share through new contract wins (e.g., Mercedes-Benz) outweigh near-term quarterly EV headwinds.
To verify the ongoing validity of this investment thesis, key monitoring factors include the commercial launch and AMPC generation of the North American LFP lines in 4Q26, the volume ramp-up of new European EV models in 2H26, and the formal achievement of an operating profit turnaround in 4Q26. These operational milestones can be verified through upcoming quarterly financial releases, official company IR updates, and statutory regulatory filings.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
Contact: Compliance and Copyright Inquiries (ksb220805@gmail.com)
