Market: KOSPI (017670)
Brokerage : SK Securities
Analyst : Kwan-soon Choi
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintain)
Target Price : KRW 90,000 (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : Full-scale operational and dividend normalization (expected 1Q26 dividend resumption at KRW 830) driven by fixed-cost savings and subscriber rebounds post-4Q25 voluntary retirements, coupled with multiple re-rating (Target PER 16.5x) powered by Anthropic equity value and phase-2 proprietary AI foundation model expansion.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained, Target Price upgraded to KRW 90,000 (from previous target; 16.1% upside potential from the February 5, 2026 closing price of KRW 77,500)
- Target Price Valuation Rationale: Applied a Target PER of 16.5x reflecting operational turnaround visibility and AI business expansion expectations
- 4Q25 Earnings Review:
- Consolidated Revenue: KRW 4.329 Trillion (~KRW 4.3 Trillion in text, -4.1% YoY, slightly below consensus of KRW 4.396 Trillion)
- Consolidated Operating Profit: KRW 119.0 Billion (KRW 119.1 Billion in text, -53.1% YoY, OPM 2.8%, beating consensus of KRW 110.0 Billion)
- Consolidated Net Profit (Controlling Interests): KRW 68.0 Billion (beating consensus of KRW 35.0 Billion)
- Profitability dragged by a 4.6% decline in mobile service revenue due to cybersecurity incidents and one-off severance costs from voluntary retirements across SKT and SK Broadband
- FY2026 Full-Year Forecast:
- Annual Revenue: KRW 17.758 Trillion (~KRW 17.8 Trillion in text, +3.9% YoY)
- Annual Operating Profit: KRW 1.843 Trillion (KRW 1.8428 Trillion in text, +71.7% YoY, OPM 10.4%)
- Annual Net Profit (Controlling Interests): KRW 1.163 Trillion
- Dividends & Shareholder Returns:
- 4Q dividend suspended, following the 3Q omission
- Despite 2H dividend omissions, full-year consolidated dividend payout ratio reached 86.6%, satisfying criteria for separate dividend income taxation
- High likelihood of quarterly dividend resumption in 1Q26 at KRW 830 per share as fixed-cost burdens ease
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Full 2026 Operational Turnaround:
- Although the financial drag of cybersecurity incidents will take time to fully clear, cost-efficiency gains from voluntary retirements will materialize in full force.
- Rebound in mobile subscriber numbers will drive operating profit toward KRW 1.84 Trillion (+71.7% YoY), putting earnings and dividends on a steady normalization track.
- AI Business Execution & Anthropic Valuation:
- Recent valuation rerating reflects market expectations for Anthropic’s equity value alongside core operational recovery.
- Proprietary AI foundation model business entering Phase 2, confirming standalone competitive strength and justifying higher valuation multiples.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK Telecom as having absorbed expected 4Q25 earnings troughs caused by cybersecurity-related mobile revenue declines and one-off severance packages across SKT and SK Broadband, positioning the company for a sharp FY2026 operating profit rebound (~KRW 1.84 Trillion) and a 1Q dividend resumption (KRW 830). This perspective treats separate dividend income taxation eligibility (via an 86.6% FY2025 payout ratio) and visible core turnaround as downside support, while identifying Anthropic equity recognition and Phase 2 proprietary AI foundation model execution as primary catalysts justifying a Target PER upgrade to 16.5x (KRW 90,000 target price).
To evaluate whether this investment thesis materializes, key verification points include confirming that the 1Q26 DPS is officially declared at KRW 830 to validate dividend restoration, verifying that post-retirement cost savings deliver the projected ~KRW 1.84 Trillion operating profit, and tracking official disclosures regarding Anthropic equity value in statutory annual filings alongside milestone execution in Phase 2 proprietary AI initiatives. These developments can be monitored via upcoming quarterly earnings announcements, official IR presentations, and periodic DART statutory filings.
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Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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