Market: KOSPI (017670)
Brokerage : Eugene Investment & Securities
Analyst : Hyun-young Lee
Investment Rating : HOLD (Maintain)
Target Price : KRW 73,000 (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : Full-scale earnings and dividend recovery in 2026 driven by post-retirement labor cost reductions and data center expansion following 4Q25 one-offs, alongside target price upgrade via multiple adjustment while excluding Anthropic equity value due to unverified shareholder cash flow attribution.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: HOLD maintained, Target Price upgraded by 46% to KRW 73,000 (from KRW 50,000; -5.8% upside relative to the February 5, 2026 closing price of KRW 77,500)
- Target Price Valuation Rationale:
- Applied higher valuation multiples reflecting 2026 earnings recovery and the dissipation of dividend overhangs
- Anthropic Equity Value Excluded from Valuation: In order to incorporate minority asset valuations into corporate target prices, clear shareholder attribution mechanisms must exist (e.g., EPS expansion via capital gains, shareholder return funding via monetization, or core business synergies). Given that SKT invested as a Strategic Investor (SI) and confirmed no current exit or liquidity-driven shareholder return plans during the earnings call, Anthropic value is excluded from fair value calculations.
- 4Q25 Earnings Review:
- Consolidated Revenue: KRW 4.329 Trillion (KRW 4.3287 Trillion in text, -4.1% YoY, in line with consensus)
- Consolidated Operating Profit: KRW 119.1 Billion (-53.1% YoY, impacted by cybersecurity top-line drag, incident costs, and voluntary retirement expenses)
- 4Q quarterly dividend omitted, meeting market expectations
- FY2026 Full-Year Forecast:
- Annual Revenue: KRW 17.619 Trillion (+3.0% YoY)
- Annual Operating Profit: KRW 1.842 Trillion (+71.7% YoY, revised up from previous estimate of KRW 1.825 Trillion)
- Annual Net Profit: KRW 1.239 Trillion
- 2026E EPS: KRW 5,597 / ROE: 11.2% / PER: 13.8x / PBR: 1.5x / EV/EBITDA: 4.7x
- Dividends & Shareholder Returns:
- Significant improvement in 2026 dividend visibility with visibly strengthened management commitment to shareholder returns
- Potential catalysts include tax-exempt dividends starting from 2027 and inclusion eligibility for separate taxation on dividend income
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2026 Earnings Turnaround Trajectory:
- Dissipation of cybersecurity financial headwinds and subscriber gains driven by competitor penalty fee waivers support top-line recovery.
- Structural labor cost savings from voluntary retirements propel operational normalization.
- Mid-to-Long Term Growth Drivers:
- Footprint expansion via Ulsan and Guro data center additions (operational in 2027–2028) and participation in large-scale submarine cable projects (service launch in 2028–2029).
- Valuation Assessment & Trading Zone:
- Current stock prices largely price in the fundamental value of core operational and dividend normalization.
- Further upside relies heavily on Anthropic momentum; due to uncertainty regarding momentum sustainability, current price levels are viewed as a trading range.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK Telecom as an operator successfully absorbing 4Q25 cybersecurity impacts and voluntary retirement costs to rebuild annual operating profit (~KRW 1.84 Trillion) and restore dividend visibility through structural labor cost savings, subscriber recovery, and data center additions. While hiking the target price to KRW 73,000 on multiple adjustments, the analyst intentionally excludes Anthropic’s equity stake from the fair valuation because of the lack of tangible shareholder attribution pathways (no exit or monetization plans under its SI status), maintaining a HOLD rating as the current share price already reflects core fundamental recovery.
To evaluate whether this investment thesis materializes, key verification points include confirming that post-retirement cost efficiencies deliver the projected FY2026 KRW 1.84 Trillion operating profit and KRW 1.24 Trillion net profit, verifying the formal resumption of dividends and timelines for the 2027 tax-exempt dividend transition, and monitoring construction progress on the Ulsan/Guro data centers alongside official strategic updates regarding Anthropic monetization. These milestones can be tracked via upcoming quarterly earnings announcements, official IR presentations, and periodic DART statutory filings.
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Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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