Brokerage : Mirae Asset Securities
Analyst : Chul-joong Kim
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 600,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Driven by accelerated demand for high-margin cylindrical BBUs in ESS and plant utilization recovery in Hungary, the company is projected to turn an operating profit in 2026 alongside strong North American ESS order momentum.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained), Target Price KRW 600,000 (Maintained, Sector Top Pick)
- Market Data (As of 2026-03-17): Current Price KRW 389,000 (Upside Potential 54.2%), Market Cap KRW 31.35 Trillion, KOSPI 5,640.48pt, Shares Outstanding 81.0 Million, Foreign Ownership 24.3%
- Key Financial Forecasts (2025F → 2026F → 2027F):
- Revenue: KRW 13.27 Trillion → KRW 15.36 Trillion → KRW 18.37 Trillion
- Operating Profit: KRW -1.72 Trillion → KRW 5.0 Billion (Turnaround, revised upward from KRW -198.0 Billion) → KRW 1.35 Trillion
- Net Profit (Controlling): KRW -647.0 Billion → KRW 375.0 Billion (Turnaround) → KRW 1.64 Trillion
- EPS: KRW -8,279 → KRW 4,561 (Turnaround) → KRW 19,968
- Operating Margin (OPM): -13.0% → 0.0% → 7.4%
- ROE: -3.1% → 1.7% → 7.2%
- PER / PBR: -x / 1.0x → 85.3x / 1.8x (Historical 2023 basis PBR reference) → 19.5x
- Earnings Revisions: 1Q26 operating loss estimate revised up to KRW -222.6 Billion (from KRW -340.0 Billion), full-year 2026 operating profit revised to KRW 4.6 Billion (rounded to KRW 5.0 Billion in table, turning profitable). Stellantis client compensation of ~KRW 300.0 Billion reflected in 4Q26.
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Cylindrical BBU & Hungarian Line Utilization Recovery:
- BBU Expansion: High-power BBU growth for data center ESS is accelerating faster than expected. BBU products command a ~10%p margin and ASP premium over other cylindrical applications. Given that Chinese peers face slow global market entry and LGES capacity is concentrated on Tesla EVs, demand benefits will concentrate on Panasonic and Samsung SDI.
- Hungarian Line Trough: Utilization at the Hungarian line is recovering from 40% in 4Q25 to 55% in 1Q26 and is projected to reach 70% in 2Q26, delivering fixed-cost reductions. Potential EU IAA share restrictions and environmental rules add operational uncertainties for Chinese competitors in Europe.
- North American ESS Expansion & Undervalued Multiples:
- Tesla Order & Accelerated Inflows: Following the resumption of prismatic ESS supply to Tesla in January, new ESS order momentum is accelerating (~50GWh estimated between Dec and Mar).
- Valuation Disconnect: Samsung SDI remains undervalued relative to global peers, leaving significant headroom for multiple expansion.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung SDI as a turnaround battery manufacturer positioned to achieve full-year operating profitability in 2026, driven by higher-margin cylindrical BBU adoption and the operational trough-passing of its Hungarian EV facilities (utilization rising from 40% in 4Q25 to 70% in 2Q26). This perspective emphasizes structural market share gains from resumed prismatic ESS supply to Tesla and rapid North American ESS order intake (~50GWh estimated recently), alongside tight competitive supply in non-China high-power BBUs, rather than broad EV macro concerns.
To track the ongoing validity of this investment thesis, key monitoring factors include the recovery of Hungarian plant utilization toward 70% in 2Q26, delivery execution on new North American ESS contracts including Tesla, and the formal achievement of full-year 2026 operating profitability supported by expected 4Q26 Stellantis compensation (~KRW 300.0 Billion). These operational developments can be tracked through upcoming quarterly financial releases, official company IR updates, and periodic regulatory filings.
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