Brokerage : Daishin Securities Analyst : Kang Gwi-yeon, Park Seo-young (RA) Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained) Target Price : KRW 690,000 (Lowered)
Core Momentum : Driven by early turnaround achievement through North American ESS growth and premium mix improvements alongside one-off tariff refunds, Samsung SDI is poised for a renewed earnings expansion cycle backed by upcoming non-PFE LFP shipments and European EV project orders.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained), 6-Month Target Price KRW 690,000 (Lowered -25%; based on target market cap of KRW 55.2 Trillion and fair value per common share of KRW 685,085, reflecting KRW 62.9 Trillion operating value, KRW 1.7 Trillion non-operating value, and KRW 9.3 Trillion net debt)
- Current Stock Price & Upside: KRW 358,500 (as of July 30, 2026 close), Upside Potential 92.5% (93%)
- Market & Equity Data: KOSPI 5,593.56 pt, Market Cap KRW 29.14 Trillion, Total Shares Outstanding 81.0 Million (Common Stock KRW 408 Billion), Foreign Ownership 26.34%
- Financial Performance & Forecast Summary:
- 2024A: Revenue KRW 16.59 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 363.0 Billion, Pre-tax Profit KRW 527.0 Billion, Net Profit (Total) KRW 576.0 Billion, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 599.0 Billion, EPS KRW 8,288, PER 29.2x, BPS KRW 273,371, PBR 0.9x, ROE 3.1%
- 2025A: Revenue KRW 13.27 Trillion, Operating Loss KRW 1.72 Trillion, Pre-tax Loss KRW 1.36 Trillion, Net Loss (Total) KRW 585.0 Billion, Net Loss (Controlling) KRW 649.0 Billion, EPS -KRW 8,325, PER N/A, BPS KRW 274,873, PBR 1.0x, ROE -3.2%
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 15.90 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 381.0 Billion (Turnaround to Profit), Pre-tax Profit KRW 1.19 Trillion, Net Profit (Total) KRW 1.10 Trillion, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 767.0 Billion (Turnaround to Profit), EPS KRW 9,333, PER 69.9x, BPS KRW 270,512, PBR 1.3x, ROE 3.5%
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 20.43 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 1.66 Trillion, Pre-tax Profit KRW 2.41 Trillion, Net Profit (Total) KRW 1.84 Trillion, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 1.66 Trillion, EPS KRW 20,176, PER 32.3x, BPS KRW 291,018, PBR 1.2x, ROE 7.2%
- 2028F: Revenue KRW 24.42 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 3.12 Trillion, Pre-tax Profit KRW 3.86 Trillion, Net Profit (Total) KRW 2.95 Trillion, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 2.66 Trillion, EPS KRW 32,332, PER 20.2x, BPS KRW 323,685, PBR 1.1x, ROE 10.5%
- Valuation Breakdown:
- Operating Value (KRW 62.86 Trillion): Applied 12MF peer average multiples to 2027 EBITDA — Mid-to-Large Battery KRW 48.13 Trillion, Small Battery KRW 13.35 Trillion, Electronic Materials KRW 1.37 Trillion
- Non-Operating Value (KRW 1.69 Trillion): Listed affiliates KRW 789.0 Billion (40% holding discount applied — S-1 KRW 180.0 Billion, Hotel Shilla KRW 1.0 Billion, Samsung E&A KRW 564.0 Billion, Samsung Heavy Industries KRW 43.0 Billion) + Unlisted affiliates KRW 899.0 Billion (50% discount to 2026E book value — Samsung Display KRW 848.0 Billion, Others KRW 51.0 Billion)
- Deductions: Estimated 2026E net debt of KRW 9.34 Trillion and preferred share market cap of KRW 250.0 Billion
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q26 Earnings Review (Earnings Surprise):
- Revenue totaled KRW 3.77 Trillion (+18.5% YoY, +5.4% QoQ), with operating profit reaching KRW 203.8 Billion (OPM 5.4%, turnaround to profit) and net profit of KRW 342.0 Billion, topping consensus (-KRW 26.0 Billion).
- While one-off US reciprocal tariff refunds contributed significantly, underlying core operations turned profitable.
- Battery Division: Revenue of KRW 3.5 Trillion (+19% YoY) and OP of KRW 160.0 Billion. Sub-segments comprised EV at KRW 1.5 Trillion (43% share), ESS at KRW 809.4 Billion (23%), and Small Battery at KRW 1.2 Trillion (34%). Driven by US JV volume expansion, tariff refunds, and favorable ESS/small mix despite domestic ESS deferrals.
- Electronic Materials: Revenue of KRW 249.8 Billion (+15% YoY) and OP of KRW 44.5 Billion (+35% YoY, OPM 18%), supported by steady semiconductor and IT demand.
- 3Q26 Earnings Outlook:
- Projected revenue of KRW 3.95 Trillion (+29.5% YoY, +4.9% QoQ), operating profit of KRW 88.8 Billion (YoY turnaround, QoQ -56.4%, OPM 2%), and net profit of KRW 188.0 Billion.
- Underlying profit structure to solidify through expanding ESS revenue (+25% QoQ in North America) and AMPC subsidies (estimated KRW 121.7 Billion).
- Despite an 11% QoQ decline in automotive revenue due to Stellantis adjustments, all divisions excluding automotive are forecast to achieve operating profits even without AMPC.
- 2H26 Catalysts & Order Inflows:
- Resumption of structural earnings growth driven by North American ESS expansion.
- Commercial supply of non-PFE compliant LFP batteries and realization of premium product mix effects (UPS, BBU).
- High visibility on new order intake for North American ESS LFP cells and European EV platform projects in 2H26.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung SDI not merely as benefiting from temporary tariff refunds, but as a business that has accelerated its core operational turnaround ahead of initial market expectations (advanced from Q3 to Q2) through North American ESS expansion and mix optimization across high-margin applications (UPS, BBU). While target valuation multiples and subsidiary valuations were adjusted downward to reflect broader market conditions, the thesis underscores substantial upside potential anchored by non-PFE compliant LFP competitiveness and high visibility in 2H26 North American ESS and European EV contract awards.
To determine whether this investment thesis materializes going forward, key points to verify include confirming sustained operational profitability across non-automotive segments in Q3 post one-off eliminations, tracking actual AMPC subsidy recognition (projected KRW 121.7 Billion) alongside non-PFE LFP battery shipments to the North American ESS market, and verifying finalized order wins for new European EV projects in 2H26. These developments can be monitored through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR presentations, and regulatory filings (DART).
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