Brokerage : Kiwoom Securities
Analyst : Yu-ak Park
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 210,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Full-year 2026 operating profit is projected to reach KRW 173T driven by surging commodity DRAM/NAND ASPs and ramping HBM4 production, with non-memory operating profit turning positive in 4Q26 supported by SF2P-based Exynos 2700 market share expansion.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained, Sector Top Pick maintained, Target Price maintained at KRW 210,000 (Current price as of February 9, 2026: KRW 166,400)
- Key Valuation Multiples (2026F): P/E 8.3x, P/B 2.03x, ROE 27.2%, EV/EBITDA 1.4x, Dividend Yield (25E) 2.8%
- Per-Share Metrics (2026F): EPS KRW 19,961 (YoY +202.7%), BPS (25E) KRW 64,814
- Annual Financial Projections:
- 2023: Revenue KRW 258.94T, Operating Profit KRW 6.57T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 14.47T
- 2024: Revenue KRW 300.87T, Operating Profit KRW 32.73T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 33.62T
- 2025F: Revenue KRW 333.61T, Operating Profit KRW 43.64T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 44.28T
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 499.99T (KRW 500T in text, YoY +50%), Operating Profit KRW 172.61T (KRW 173T in text, YoY +295%, OPM 34.5%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 131.90T
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Non-Memory Turnaround & Exynos 2700 Catalysts:
- Exynos 2700 to enter mass production on Samsung Foundry’s SF2P process in 2H26, with Galaxy S27 adoption share expected to reach ~50% (vs. ~25% in Galaxy S26)
- Adoption driven by SF2P process yield improvement, enhanced benchmark performance, and customer cost-reduction requirements
- Non-Memory Earnings Outlook: Revenue of KRW 30.1T (+18% YoY) and operating loss of KRW 3.6T in 2026 → Revenue of KRW 36.4T (+21% YoY) and operating profit of KRW 1.8T (turnaround) in 2027 (Quarterly breakeven expected in 4Q26)
- 2026 Memory Pricing & Business Trajectory:
- Projected 2026 blended ASP growth: Commodity DRAM +109% YoY and NAND +105% YoY
- Strong commodity DRAM pricing provides leverage in HBM4 pricing negotiations, with HBM revenue and operating profit projected to surge 3.2x and 6.3x YoY in 2026
- Potential for further upward earnings revisions driven by higher-than-expected eSSD-led NAND ASP increases
- Share Price Drivers & Product Execution:
- Upward momentum supported by further NAND price increases, full-scale HBM4 mass production, and non-memory turnaround catalysts
- Differentiated performance expected alongside Gen-9 V-NAND mass production and technological competitive recovery
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electronics as an integrated chipmaker achieving rapid earnings expansion toward KRW 173T in 2026 operating profit powered by surging commodity memory ASPs and HBM4 commercialization, while unlocking quarterly operating profitability in non-memory (4Q26) through SF2P yield improvements and expanding Exynos 2700 adoption. This perspective places primary emphasis on robust memory pricing leverage, technology recovery via Gen-9 V-NAND, and the structural turnaround of the non-memory business into 2027, rather than near-term valuation multiple concerns.
To verify whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, key verification points include whether realized 2026 DRAM/NAND ASP increases and full-year operating profit (KRW 173T) meet projections, whether Samsung Foundry achieves SF2P yield stability in 2H26 to support Exynos 2700 volume expansion in the Galaxy S27, and whether the non-memory division achieves quarterly profitability by 4Q26 alongside ramping HBM4 shipments. These developments can be monitored through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR materials, regulatory filings, and periodic financial statements.
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