Market: KOSPI (017670)
Brokerage : Shinhan Securities
Analyst : Ah-ram Kim
Investment Rating : Trading BUY (Maintain)
Target Price : KRW 74,500 (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : Full-scale recovery of 2026 earnings and dividends (2026E OP of KRW 1.93 Trillion, DPS of KRW 3,320) supported by post-incident recovery and AIDC growth, alongside SOTP reflection of Anthropic’s equity value (~KRW 3.0 Trillion) and removal of core telecom EV/EBITDA discount.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: Trading BUY maintained, Target Price upgraded by 26% to KRW 74,500 (from previous target; -3.9% upside relative to the February 5, 2026 closing price of KRW 77,500)
- Target Price Methodology (SOTP Valuation):
- Reflected Anthropic equity value (estimated at ~KRW 3.0 Trillion) via Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation
- Removed the previous 5% EV/EBITDA multiple discount on core telecom business as dividend uncertainty subsided
- Trading available ahead of Anthropic’s IPO, but peer telcos (KT 6.3%, LGU+ 5.8%) preferred for dividend stability as SKT’s shareholder return yield compresses to 4.3%
- 4Q25 Earnings Review:
- Consolidated Operating Profit: KRW 119.1 Billion (-53.1% YoY, meeting market consensus)
- Absorbed ~KRW 240.0 Billion in one-off labor expenses related to voluntary retirements across SKT, SK Broadband, and other subsidiaries
- Segment Revenue Growth: Wireless -4.6% YoY, Broadband +0.9% YoY, Pay-TV -2.2% YoY, AIDC (Data Center) +59.2% YoY
- FY2026 Full-Year Forecast:
- Annual Revenue: KRW 17.509 Trillion
- Annual Operating Profit: KRW 1.928 Trillion (~KRW 1.93 Trillion in text, +79.8% YoY)
- Annual Net Profit (Controlling Interests): KRW 1.232 Trillion
- 2026E ROE: 10.3% / PER: 13.5x / PBR: 1.4x / EV/EBITDA: 4.3x / Dividend Yield: 4.3%
- Dividends & Shareholder Returns:
- DPS Trajectory: FY2024 KRW 3,540 (KRW 830×3 + KRW 1,050) → FY2025 KRW 1,660 (KRW 830×2) → FY2026E KRW 3,320 (KRW 830×4)
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Post-Incident Recovery & 2026 Core Turnaround:
- Rapid AIDC expansion against favorable low-base comps following 2025 cybersecurity disruptions.
- Secured ~200,000 net mobile additions during competitor KT’s penalty fee waiver period, progressively offsetting prior subscriber losses (750,000 churn).
- Profitability-first management stance supports full-year operating profit and dividend normalization toward FY2024 levels.
- Anthropic Catalysts & Upside Risks:
- Valuation recognition of Anthropic (developer of Claude AI) drove a 45% stock surge and KRW 5.2 Trillion market cap increase year-to-date.
- Key upside risks include further increases in Anthropic’s private market valuation, discount rate compression, and additional foreign investor ownership expansion.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK Telecom as an operator successfully putting 4Q25 voluntary retirement one-offs (~KRW 240 Billion) and cybersecurity disruptions behind it, charting a path toward FY2026 operating profit normalization (~KRW 1.93 Trillion) and a restored KRW 3,320 DPS. Incorporating ~KRW 3.0 Trillion in Anthropic equity value via SOTP and removing the 5% core multiple discount justified upgrading the target price to KRW 74,500; however, the analyst maintains a Trading BUY rating due to recent price appreciation compressing its expected shareholder return yield to 4.3% (below KT’s 6.3% and LGU+’s 5.8%).
To evaluate whether this investment thesis materializes, key verification points include confirming that post-retirement structural cost savings deliver the projected FY2026 KRW 1.93 Trillion operating profit and KRW 1.23 Trillion controlling net profit, verifying the quarterly distribution of KRW 830 DPS (annual KRW 3,320), and monitoring the growth durability of AIDC (+50%+ YoY) alongside Anthropic’s valuation updates and eventual IPO progress. These developments can be tracked via upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR presentations, and periodic DART statutory filings.
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