Brokerage : Shinhan Securities
Analyst : Ho-chul Lee, Min-yong Eom
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 290,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Sustained earnings growth driven by expanding sales mix of new products, operating leverage from SG&A efficiency, US facility operations, and ramping global CMO orders
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating and Target Price: BUY (Maintained), Target Price KRW 290,000 (Maintained), offering 48.6% upside potential against the base share price of KRW 195,100 (as of May 14).
- Consolidated Financial Summary & Forecasts:
- 2024A: Revenue KRW 3,557.3B, Operating Profit KRW 492.0B, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 422.7B, P/E 101.1x, P/B 2.4x, ROE 2.5%, EV/EBITDA 46.0x, DY 0.4%
- 2025A: Revenue KRW 4,162.5B, Operating Profit KRW 1,168.5B, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 1,029.6B, P/E 40.7x, P/B 2.4x, ROE 5.9%, EV/EBITDA 30.5x, DY 0.4%
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 5,317.0B, Operating Profit KRW 1,811.5B, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 1,683.7B, P/E 25.4x, P/B 2.3x, ROE 9.4%, EV/EBITDA 21.1x, DY 0.4%
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 6,103.7B, Operating Profit KRW 2,273.4B, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 2,141.9B, P/E 19.7x, P/B 2.1x, ROE 11.2%, EV/EBITDA 17.2x, DY 0.5%
- 2028F: Revenue KRW 6,572.1B, Operating Profit KRW 2,490.9B, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 2,376.6B, P/E 17.8x, P/B 1.9x, ROE 11.4%, EV/EBITDA 15.3x, DY 0.5%
- 1Q26 Financial Review:
- Consolidated Revenue reached KRW 1,145.0B (+36.0% YoY) and Operating Profit reached KRW 321.9B (+115.5% YoY).
- Sales of new products (launched since 2020) recorded KRW 561.2B (+67% YoY), surpassing a 60% share in the biosimilar segment for the first time (targeting 70% by year-end).
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Commercial Trajectory of Key New Products:
- Omlyclo: Reached a 60% market share in Spain within 3 months of launch, posting quarterly revenue of KRW 70.0B; US commercial launch scheduled in 2H is expected to accelerate revenue growth.
- Zymfentra: Sales grew 4-fold YoY fueled by expanding insurance coverage and prescriptions, with monthly prescriptions approaching 6,000 cases.
- US Operations & Global Capacity Expansion:
- The Branchburg, NJ manufacturing facility began shipments in April, with full-capacity operations anticipated next year following process optimization. Local US production fundamentally removes tariff risks.
- Capacity expansion is underway for Songdo Plants 4–5 (180kL) and Branchburg (75kL), set to expand total production capacity from 316kL to 571kL upon completion.
- CMO Order Book and Catalysts:
- Cumulative CMO order backlog surpassed KRW 1T, combining orders from Eli Lilly (KRW 678.7B) and another global pharma client (KRW 375.4B).
- Ongoing discussions for additional CMO volume with Teva in 2H represent upside potential beyond current guidance (Revenue KRW 5.3T, OP KRW 1.8T).
- Regulatory Tailwinds: Positioned to benefit from potential easing of Phase 3 biosimilar requirements and US CMS low-cost drug prioritization policies.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Celltrion as a company maximizing operating leverage through an expanding new product sales mix and SG&A efficiencies, while broadening its operational scope through local US manufacturing and global CMO contracts. This perspective highlights the strategic scaling of global market shares across core products and capacity-backed contract manufacturing additions rather than single-quarter performance.
To determine whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, key tracking points will be whether Omlyclo’s US launch and Zymfentra’s prescription momentum meet growth expectations, and whether Branchburg plant ramp-up and potential additional CMO contracts (such as Teva) translate into formal earnings guidance upgrades. These developments can be verified through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR presentations, and periodic regulatory filings.
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