Brokerage : Mirae Asset Securities
Analyst : Young-gun Kim
Investment Rating : Buy (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 300,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Driven by sustained memory pricing strength from smartphone specification upgrades and structural capacity constraints, alongside upwardly revised earnings estimates, elevated ROE levels are projected to be maintained.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: Buy maintained, Target Price maintained at KRW 300,000 (50.5% upside potential based on the March 20, 2026 closing price of KRW 199,400)
- Key Valuation Multiples (2026F): P/E 5.8x (12M forward P/E remains at an absolute low), P/B 2.0x, ROE 42.9%, Dividend Yield 0.8% (4.3% based on estimated 2026F DPS of KRW 8,610 against the current price)
- Per-Share Metrics (2026F): EPS KRW 34,432 (YoY +424.6%)
- Annual Financial Projections:
- 2024: Revenue KRW 300.87T, Operating Profit KRW 32.73T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 33.62T
- 2025: Revenue KRW 333.61T, Operating Profit KRW 43.60T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 44.26T
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 601.22T (KRW 601T in text, YoY +80.2%), Operating Profit KRW 251.02T (KRW 251T in text, YoY +476%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 231.92T (Controlling net profit cited at KRW 226T in text)
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 758.73T, Operating Profit KRW 360.85T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 339.21T (ROE 41.2%)
- 2028F: Revenue KRW 846.87T, Operating Profit KRW 409.86T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 394.61T (ROE 33.3%)
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Memory Pricing Strength & Peak-Out Counterarguments:
- Elevated price levels and a high ROE profile are expected to persist due to irreversible smartphone specification upgrades, pent-up demand from datacenter/consumer IT polarization, and structural capacity constraints
- Mid-March 4Q26 contract prices: PC DRAM DDR5 maintained, DDR4 raised +2.9%. While the DRAM contract price per bit is projected up to $2.1/Gb, Samsung’s conventional DRAM 4Q26 ASP/Gb estimate stands at $1.8, leaving room for further upward revisions
- 1Q26 Earnings Outlook:
- Projected Revenue of KRW 124T (+32.2% QoQ) and Operating Profit of KRW 41.3T (+105.9% QoQ)
- Operating Profit by Segment: DS KRW 37.2T (OPM 55.3%), DX KRW 3.5T (OPM 6.3%), Foundry losses narrowing to KRW 1.0T
- Shipments & ASP: DRAM/NAND bit growth of +4.3%/+8.0% and blended ASP increases of +55.4%/+53.0% projected
- 2026 Earnings Upgrades & Shareholder Return:
- 2026 full-year forecasts revised upward: Revenue +1.5% and Operating Profit +3.0% (NAND OPM revised up to 61.6% on price hikes)
- Reconfirmed the plan for special shareholder returns within the stated 50% ceiling of 3-year cumulative FCF via the Corporate Value-up announcement on March 19
- Notable positive newsflow including NVIDIA foundry orders, OpenAI HBM4 supply, and Big Tech long-term supply agreement reports
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electronics as an enterprise capable of maintaining annual operating profit of approximately KRW 251T and sustaining elevated ROE levels, supported by tight supply-demand fundamentals stemming from mobile spec advancements and structural capacity constraints. This perspective places primary emphasis on the resilience of elevated memory price levels and the visibility of shareholder return plans, rather than market concerns regarding a potential memory price peak-out.
To verify whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, key verification points include whether realized 1Q and full-year DRAM and NAND ASP growth rates match upwardly revised projections, whether 4Q conventional DRAM contract prices see additional upward revisions, and whether the planned special shareholder returns within the stated 50% ceiling of three-year cumulative FCF are implemented. These factors can be monitored through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR presentations, regulatory disclosures, and periodic financial reports.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
Contact: Compliance and Copyright Inquiries (ksb220805@gmail.com)
