Brokerage : IBK Securities
Analyst : Hyun-wook Lee
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 800,000 (Raised)
Core Momentum : Confirming an earnings bottom in 1Q26 and entering an operational turnaround toward a 4Q26 operating profit, supported by rising European EV utilization and North American ESS capacity fully booked through 2028.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained), Target Price KRW 800,000 (Raised from KRW 500,000)
- Market Data (As of 2026-04-28): Current Price KRW 680,000, Market Cap KRW 55.33 Trillion, KOSPI 6,641.02pt, Shares Outstanding 82,203 Thousand, Foreign Ownership 25.7%
- Key Financial Forecasts (2025 → 2026F → 2027F):
- Revenue: KRW 13.27 Trillion → KRW 15.20 Trillion → KRW 18.70 Trillion
- Operating Profit: KRW -1.72 Trillion → KRW -37.0 Billion (Loss Narrowed) → KRW 1.85 Trillion (Turnaround)
- Pre-tax Profit: KRW -1.36 Trillion → KRW 700.0 Billion (Turnaround) → KRW 2.50 Trillion
- Net Profit (Controlling): KRW -649.0 Billion → KRW 669.0 Billion (Turnaround) → KRW 2.02 Trillion
- EPS: KRW -8,325 → KRW 8,143 (Turnaround) → KRW 24,551
- Operating Margin (OPM): -13.0% → -0.2% → 9.9%
- ROE: -3.2% → 3.1% → 8.7%
- PER / PBR: -32.4x / 1.0x → 83.5x / 2.5x → 27.7x / 2.3x
- EV/EBITDA: 87.3x → 32.1x → 15.5x
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 1Q26 Earnings Review: Revenue stood at KRW 3.58 Trillion (QoQ -7.3%) and Operating Loss was KRW -155.6 Billion (Loss continued QoQ, recognizing KRW 80.5 Billion in AMPC, OPM -4.3%), beating market expectations (Revenue KRW 3.4 Trillion, Operating Loss KRW -258.0 Billion). Supported by higher Hungarian fab utilization and European shipments from the US SPE plant; EV revenue fell 20% QoQ due to high base effects from 4Q25 compensation. North American ESS NCA shipments held steady despite seasonality, and small battery inventories normalized to 6 months on data center construction tool demand.
- Segment Outlook & 4Q26 Turnaround:
- EV Segment: Shipments of P6 high-nickel cells for European Hyundai/Kia volume models (Ioniq3, EV2) starting in 2Q26 are projected to lead the EV recovery.
- ESS Segment: Total ESS manufacturing capacity is forecast to reach 42GWh by end-2026 (Ulsan 10GWh, China 3GWh, North America 29GWh). Full-year AMPC recognition from eligible North American lines is estimated at 7.6GWh (KRW 359.1 Billion). Notably, North American ESS capacity is believed to be fully booked through 2028.
- Earnings Inflection: With sector-wide consensus downgrades deemed complete, the company is forecast to turn an operating profit in 4Q26 after nine consecutive quarters of losses.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung SDI as a turnaround battery manufacturer passing its structural earnings bottom with limited downside risk, positioned for an operational rebound led by North American ESS capacity fully booked through 2028 and new volume model launches in Europe. This perspective emphasizes that as sector-wide estimate cuts draw to a close, robust contract visibility in North American ESS and a projected return to operating profitability in 4Q26 signal the start of a multi-year earnings recovery.
To evaluate the ongoing validity of this investment thesis, key monitoring factors include the volume ramp-up of P6 batteries for European Hyundai/Kia models (Ioniq3, EV2) starting in 2Q26, the realization of the projected 7.6GWh in annual AMPC-eligible ESS shipments (KRW 359.1 Billion), and the formal achievement of an operating profit turnaround in 4Q26. These execution milestones can be tracked through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official company IR presentations, and statutory filings.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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