Market: KOSPI (017670)
Brokerage : Hana Securities
Analyst : Hong-sik Kim (RA: Sang-hoon Lee)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintain)
Target Price : KRW 80,000 (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : Headwinds from 4Q25 earnings weakness and potential dividend suspension already priced in, DPS estimates upgraded to KRW 3,500 (yielding 5.6%) alongside low-base earnings growth, and catalysts from expected Anthropic post-IPO capital gains (~KRW 1.5 Trillion) and sovereign AI project selection.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained, 12-Month Target Price upgraded by 45% to KRW 80,000 (from previous target; based on the January 26, 2026 closing price of KRW 61,800), named Sector Top Pick
- Target Price Valuation Rationale: Directly attributable to a significant upward revision in the FY2026 DPS forecast from KRW 2,600 to KRW 3,500, underpinned by cash flow considerations and operational recovery
- FY2026 Full-Year Forecast:
- Annual Revenue: KRW 17.909 Trillion
- Annual Operating Profit: KRW 1.872 Trillion (Sharp profit growth expected from a low 2025 base)
- Annual Net Profit (Controlling Interests): KRW 1.145 Trillion
- 2026E EPS: KRW 5,332 / BPS: KRW 57,741 / ROE: 9.52% / PER: 11.59x / PBR: 1.07x / EV/EBITDA: 3.53x
- Dividends & Shareholder Returns:
- 4Q25 dividend expected to decline sharply or be omitted due to voluntary retirement expenses, but fully discounted in recent share price action
- Projected FY2026 DPS raised to KRW 3,500 (Delivering an attractive dividend yield of 5.6% at current prices)
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Priced-In Headwinds & Accelerated Buying Window:
- Market concerns over 4Q25 earnings drag and dividend omissions have already been priced into equity valuations, sparking an early rebound.
- Recommends advancing entry timing ahead of the February earnings release rather than waiting post-announcement.
- Anthropic Post-IPO Divestment Gains & Financial Impact:
- Assuming Anthropic reaches a post-IPO market cap exceeding KRW 400 Trillion, SKT’s equity stake value is estimated at ~KRW 1.6 Trillion.
- Monetization within the year could generate ~KRW 1.5 Trillion in capital gains, improving balance sheet strength and net profit.
- Improving underlying cash flow trends bolster expectations for early dividend normalization (KRW 3,500) in 2026.
- Sovereign AI Foundation Model Selection:
- Selection as Korea’s sovereign AI foundation model partner would establish SKT as the benchmark domestic AI player.
- Selection is expected to trigger passive and active inflows from institutional and government-backed AI funds.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK Telecom as an operator that has largely digested 4Q25 operational weakness and dividend omission risks, positioning itself for a sharp operating profit rebound to KRW 1.87 Trillion and early dividend normalization (DPS of KRW 3,500 yielding 5.6%) driven by improving cash flows. This perspective treats the 5.6% dividend yield and fully discounted negative catalysts as solid downside protection, while identifying accelerated dividend restoration alongside ~KRW 1.5 Trillion in potential Anthropic divestment gains and sovereign AI selection as primary drivers justifying the 45% target price upgrade to KRW 80,000.
To evaluate whether this investment thesis materializes, key verification points include confirming that FY2026 operating profit tracking supports the ~KRW 1.87 Trillion recovery path post-4Q results, verifying the formal approval of the KRW 3,500 DPS alongside cash flow improvements, and monitoring Anthropic’s IPO progress and potential divestment gains together with selection results for the national sovereign AI initiative. These milestones can be tracked via upcoming quarterly earnings announcements, official IR presentations, and periodic DART statutory filings.
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