Market: KOSPI (017670)
Brokerage : SK Securities
Analyst : Kwan-soon Choi
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintain)
Target Price : KRW 69,000 (Maintain)
Core Momentum : Complete resolution of cybersecurity financial overhangs and voluntary retirement one-offs (mid-KRW 200 Billion) in 4Q25, paving the way for 2026 operational and dividend normalization (DPS restoring to KRW 3,540) driven by subscriber net additions, full-year Pangyo DC recognition, and fixed-cost reductions.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained, Target Price maintained at KRW 69,000 (Based on the January 15, 2026 closing price of KRW 54,900; 25.7% upside potential)
- 4Q25 Earnings Forecast (Preview):
- Consolidated Revenue: KRW 4.396 Trillion (-2.9% YoY, +1.9% vs consensus of KRW 4.313 Trillion)
- Consolidated Operating Profit: KRW 102.5 Billion (-59.7% YoY, OPM 2.3%, KRW 103.0 Billion in table, missing market consensus of KRW 165.0 Billion)
- Consolidated Net Profit (Controlling Interests): KRW 56.0 Billion
- Earnings weighed down by mid-KRW 200 Billion in one-off severance costs from voluntary retirements across SKT and SK Broadband, alongside increased win-back marketing expenses
- FY2026 Full-Year Forecast:
- Annual Revenue: KRW 17.812 Trillion (~KRW 17.8 Trillion in text, +3.8% YoY)
- Annual Operating Profit: KRW 1.819 Trillion (~KRW 1.8 Trillion in text, +72.1% YoY, OPM 10.2%)
- Annual Net Profit (Controlling Interests): KRW 1.126 Trillion
- Dividends & Shareholder Returns:
- 4Q dividend likely to be suspended following 3Q omissions
- Full-year DPS expected to restore to the FY2024 level of KRW 3,540 alongside earnings recovery
- Payout framework of returning over 50% of adjusted consolidated net profit remains intact as a baseline, with potential for more proactive shareholder returns following CEO changes
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Concluding Cybersecurity Incident Drag:
- One-off expense outflows associated with the security breach conclude in FY2025.
- Rebound in 4Q wireless mobile subscribers signals operational stabilization.
- 2026 as the Inaugural Year of Earnings & Dividend Normalization:
- Wireless service revenue rebound propelled by turning net mobile subscriber additions positive.
- Full-year revenue contributions from SK Broadband’s Pangyo Data Center (DC).
- Structural fixed-cost savings resulting from 2025 workforce restructuring drive operating profit to ~KRW 1.82 Trillion (+72.1% YoY).
- Dissipating Uncertainty & Imminent Share Price Rebound:
- As earnings and dividend overhangs reach their final stage of resolution, the timing for a valuation rebound in lagging SKT shares is considered imminent.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK Telecom as an operator moving past its 4Q25 earnings contraction—caused by mid-KRW 200 Billion in voluntary retirement one-offs and heightened win-back marketing—to conclude all financial overhangs from the security incident, positioning 2026 as the inaugural year of full earnings and dividend normalization (~KRW 1.82 Trillion in operating profit and a restored KRW 3,540 DPS). This perspective treats the clearance of financial uncertainty and historical dividend recovery as downside support, while identifying mobile subscriber rebounds, Pangyo DC execution, and potential forward-looking shareholder policy revisions under the new CEO as primary catalysts for an imminent share price rebound to the KRW 69,000 target price.
To evaluate whether this investment thesis materializes, key verification points include confirming that post-retirement structural cost savings deliver the projected FY2026 KRW 1.82 Trillion operating profit and KRW 1.13 Trillion controlling net profit, verifying the formal resumption and normalization of full-year DPS to KRW 3,540 under new leadership, and monitoring wireless subscriber net additions alongside full-year revenue recognition from SK Broadband’s Pangyo Data Center. These developments can be tracked via upcoming quarterly earnings announcements, official IR presentations, and periodic DART statutory filings.
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Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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