Brokerage : Mirae Asset Securities
Analyst : Young-gun Kim
Investment Rating : Buy (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 300,000 (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : Earnings estimates are raised on higher DRAM and NAND ASP growth assumptions, while securing the NVIDIA Groq LPU order is reflected through a narrowing of the Foundry division’s peer valuation discount from 30% to 10%.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: Buy maintained, Target Price upgraded by 7.3% to KRW 300,000 (Previous KRW 275,000; 54.7% upside potential based on the March 17, 2026 closing price of KRW 193,900)
- Valuation Methodology: Reduced the peer EV/EBITDA discount for the Foundry/LSI division from 30% to 10% following the NVIDIA Groq LPU order win
- Key Valuation Multiples (2026F): P/E 5.8x, P/B 2.0x, ROE 42.0%, Dividend Yield 0.9%
- Per-Share Metrics (2026F): EPS KRW 33,469 (YoY +409.9%)
- Annual Financial Projections:
- 2024: Revenue KRW 300.87T, Operating Profit KRW 32.73T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 33.62T
- 2025: Revenue KRW 333.61T, Operating Profit KRW 43.60T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 44.26T
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 592.42T, Operating Profit KRW 243.79T (KRW 244T in text, exceeding consensus of KRW 197.02T, YoY +459%, OPM 41.2%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 225.44T
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 741.57T, Operating Profit KRW 346.82T (OPM 46.8%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 326.38T
- 2028F: Revenue KRW 828.43T, Operating Profit KRW 394.91T (OPM 47.7%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 380.51T
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Upward Revision of 1Q26 and 2026 Earnings Projections:
- 1Q26F Operating Profit raised by 8.4% to KRW 40.6T (+102% QoQ)
- 2026F full-year Operating Profit raised by 7.6% to KRW 243.79T (KRW 244T in text, YoY +459%)
- Pricing Assumptions: 1Q26 DRAM and NAND ASP growth estimates raised by +8.4%pt and +8.0%pt to +53.8% and +53.0%, respectively
- Significance of NVIDIA Groq 3 LPU Mass Production:
- Formal announcement at GTC of Samsung Foundry manufacturing NVIDIA’s Groq LPU (shipments scheduled from 3Q)
- Represents the second major Big Tech order win following Tesla’s AI6 Chip contract (KRW 23T)
- Groq 3 LPU integrates 500MB capacity and 150TB/s bandwidth on-chip SRAM to drive high-performance inference compute
- Foundry Opportunities & Full-Stack Capabilities:
- Expanding SRAM adoption in inference accelerators requires higher advanced node foundry wafer capacity
- Verified manufacturing capabilities for datacenter-grade accelerators with high-capacity on-chip SRAM, highlighting unique differentiation as a full-stack manufacturer spanning the memory hierarchy from SRAM to SSDs
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electronics as a company seeing earnings upgrades from higher memory ASPs, while applying a narrowed valuation discount (from 30% to 10%) to the Foundry/LSI division following the validation of its advanced manufacturing capabilities through Big Tech customer wins (Tesla and NVIDIA/Groq). This perspective places primary significance on upward revisions in corporate earnings fueled by memory pricing strength, alongside the recognition of the company’s verified manufacturing capabilities for high-capacity SRAM accelerators as a full-stack producer spanning the memory hierarchy from SRAM to SSDs.
To verify whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, key verification points include whether realized 1Q and full-year DRAM and NAND ASP gains meet upwardly revised forecasts, and whether the scheduled 3Q mass production and shipment of NVIDIA’s Groq LPU proceed as planned to demonstrate datacenter-grade accelerator manufacturing execution. These metrics can be tracked through future quarterly earnings announcements, official IR materials, regulatory filings, and periodic financial reports.
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