Brokerage : iM Securities
Analyst : Jae-won Jeong
Investment Rating : Buy (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 260,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Quality of earnings improving through the expanding sales mix of lower-cost-ratio new products and long-term execution of the two-track biosimilar and novel drug strategy
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating and Target Price: Buy (Maintained), 12-Month Target Price KRW 260,000 (Maintained, derived using DCF valuation with Terminal Growth raised from 2% to 3% reflecting market oligopoly), Base Share Price KRW 178,700 (as of 2026.07.27) with 45.5% upside.
- Consolidated Financial Summary & Forecasts (K-IFRS):
- 2025A: Revenue KRW 4,162B, Operating Profit KRW 1,168B, Net Profit KRW 1,030B, EPS KRW 4,238, P/E 42.7x, P/B 2.4x, ROE 5.9%, EV/EBITDA 30.4x
- 2026E: Revenue KRW 5,529B, Operating Profit KRW 1,751B, Net Profit KRW 1,597B, EPS KRW 6,588, P/E 27.1x, P/B 2.2x, ROE 9.0%, EV/EBITDA 21.0x
- 2027E: Revenue KRW 6,416B, Operating Profit KRW 2,244B, Net Profit KRW 1,978B, EPS KRW 8,162, P/E 21.9x, P/B 2.1x, ROE 10.3%, EV/EBITDA 16.9x
- 2028E: Revenue KRW 7,263B, Operating Profit KRW 2,581B, Net Profit KRW 2,247B, EPS KRW 9,273, P/E 19.3x, P/B 1.9x, ROE 10.8%, EV/EBITDA 14.6배
- 2Q26 Preliminary Earnings Summary:
- Consolidated Revenue KRW 1,393.7B (+45% YoY) and Operating Profit KRW 451.8B (+86% YoY, OPM 32%).
- Exceeded internal preliminary figures (Revenue KRW 1.3T, OP KRW 430B), while Operating Profit came in slightly below market consensus (Revenue KRW 1,363.4B, OP KRW 474.4B).
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Earnings Quality Supported by New Biosimilar Mix:
- 2Q26 revenue from new products (excluding mature products Remsima IV, Truxima, and Herzyma) reached KRW 824.9B, accounting for 65% of total revenue.
- The combined sales of five new products launched since 2025 grew rapidly, with Omlyclo surpassing KRW 100B in quarterly sales as a standalone product, demonstrating first-mover advantages.
- H2 Expansion and Dosage Diversification:
- Omlyclo is preparing for first-mover entry into the US market and the European launch of a 300mg formulation to expand the addressable patient population.
- Zymfentra has sustained a 23% monthly average prescription growth rate since launch, with additional profit contributions expected once local production commences following the validation of the acquired US manufacturing site.
- Two-Track Growth Strategy (Biosimilar & New Modalities):
- Capitalizing on global regulatory streamlining (e.g., Europe adopting Phase 3 exemption guidelines and US discussions on reduced clinical trials) by executing timely launches aligned with patent expirations.
- Leveraging stable biosimilar cash generation to fund novel drug development, with Phase 1 topline results for ADC pipeline candidates slated for announcement in 1H27.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Celltrion as a company improving its underlying earnings quality through an expanding revenue mix of lower-cost-ratio new products, while executing a two-track strategy that pairs rapid biosimilar commercialization with novel drug pipeline development. This perspective highlights the strategic value of early market entry (first-mover positioning) and the long-term valuation upside from emerging R&D assets, rather than short-term quarterly variance.
To determine whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, key tracking points will be whether Omlyclo’s US launch and European 300mg rollout drive sustained revenue growth, whether the US facility validation and local manufacturing transition improve Zymfentra’s margin contribution, and whether 1H27 ADC pipeline topline readouts proceed as scheduled. These variables can be verified through upcoming quarterly earnings reports, official IR presentations, and periodic filings.
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