Brokerage : Hana Securities Analyst : Kim Hyun-soo Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained) Target Price : KRW 667,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : The resolution of the GM joint venture into a standalone subsidiary resolves North American EV JV overhang while securing massive ESS dedicated capacity, setting the stage for future earnings forecast revisions.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained), 12-Month Target Price KRW 667,000 (Maintained, applying a 24x 24M Fwd P/E multiple to the 2028 estimated controlling net profit of KRW 2.2 Trillion)
- Current Stock Price: KRW 459,500 (as of August 11, 2026)
- Market & Equity Data: KOSPI 6,345.53 pt, Market Cap KRW 37.03 Trillion, Total Shares Outstanding 80.59 Million, Foreign Ownership 26.41%
- Consensus Estimates:
- 2026: Revenue KRW 15.78 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 85.5 Billion, Net Profit KRW 486.2 Billion, EPS KRW 4,264, BPS KRW 288,040
- 2027: Revenue KRW 19.69 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 1.52 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 1.60 Trillion, EPS KRW 15,574, BPS KRW 307,109
- Financial Performance & Estimates:
- 2024: Revenue KRW 16.59 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 363.3 Billion, Pre-tax Profit KRW 527.3 Billion, Net Profit KRW 599.3 Billion, EPS KRW 8,288, PER 29.24x, PBR 0.87x, ROE 3.13%
- 2025: Revenue KRW 13.27 Trillion, Operating Loss KRW 1.72 Trillion, Pre-tax Loss KRW 1.36 Trillion, Net Loss KRW 649.5 Billion, EPS -KRW 8,325, PER -32.37x, PBR 1.02x, ROE -3.15%
- 2026(F): Revenue KRW 16.09 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 385.5 Billion (Turnaround to Profit), Pre-tax Profit KRW 1.20 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 818.6 Billion (Turnaround to Profit), EPS KRW 9,959, PER 36.00x, PBR 1.24x, ROE 3.65%
- 2027(F): Revenue KRW 19.04 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 1.48 Trillion, Pre-tax Profit KRW 2.21 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 1.63 Trillion, EPS KRW 19,827, PER 18.08x, PBR 1.16x, ROE 6.72%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Easing North American EV Joint Venture Risks:
- Structural reduction in electrification roadmaps by major OEMs (GM, Ford, Stellantis) amid prolonged EV market softness and policy shifts has prompted broad-based JV restructurings across the battery sector.
- Samsung SDI is maintaining its Stellantis JV (SPE) structure while actively converting approximately 70% of its capacity into ESS lines.
- GM JV Restructuring & ESS Line Conversion Potential:
- Transitioned the 36GWh GM JV (originally planned for KRW 5.0 Trillion capex with ~KRW 550.0 Billion paid-in capital; 50.01% SDI vs. 49.99% GM) into a 100% standalone entity.
- Converting half of the acquired facility into ESS LFP lines (taking into account volume gains from switching chemistry from NCM to LFP) is projected to add roughly 20GWh of design capacity in 2H 2028.
- Secured production infrastructure capable of delivering at least 40GWh in North American ESS capacity.
- North American Capacity Roadmap Realignment:
- End of 2026 Capacity: 20GWh (EV NCA 8GWh, ESS LFP 12GWh)
- End of 2027 Capacity: 30GWh (EV NCA 8GWh, ESS LFP 22GWh)
- Long-Term Total Capacity: Right-sized from the initial 2023 projection of ~100GWh (Stellantis 67GWh, GM 36GWh) down to ~60GWh (EV ~8GWh, ESS low-50GWh range), significantly optimizing operational profile.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung SDI not as a victim of EV demand deceleration and JV downsizings, but as an agile structural transformer that leveraged the dissolution of the GM JV to secure dedicated infrastructure for the surging North American ESS market. Rather than interpreting the JV buyout as a negative signal for electric vehicle demand, the perspective places greater value on the rapid reallocation of capacity toward ESS LFP, which strengthens earnings visibility and provides headroom for upward revisions in financial estimates.
To determine whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key verification points include monitoring the conversion progress of the acquired standalone plant into ESS LFP lines, tracking the potential addition of 20GWh in design capacity by 2H 2028, and verifying the commercial ramp-up of the North American ESS footprint (expanding from 12GWh in 2026 to 22GWh in 2027) alongside new utility-scale supply contracts. These developments can be tracked through the company’s quarterly earnings calls, official IR materials, and regulatory filings (DART).
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