Brokerage : DS Investment & Securities
Analyst : Minjeong Kim
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 1,950,000 (Lowered)
Core Momentum : Despite temporary first-half order delays, earnings acceleration is expected from 3Q26 driven by operational ramp-ups at Plant 5 and Rockville alongside potential conversion of $2.6bn in non-binding contracts.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY rating maintained; Target Price lowered to KRW 1,950,000.
- Valuation Overview: Recent multiple compression to ~21.1x 2026E EV/EBITDA due to labor disputes and H1 order softness is viewed as excessive given the strong underlying CDMO demand, H2 order concentration, peptide investments, and ADC growth.
- Annual Financial Forecast (K-IFRS Consolidated):
- 2024: Revenue KRW 3.497 trillion, Operating Profit KRW 1.321 trillion (OPM 37.8%), Pre-tax Profit KRW 1.402 trillion, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 1.051 trillion.
- 2025: Revenue KRW 4.557 trillion, Operating Profit KRW 2.088 trillion (OPM 45.8%), Pre-tax Profit KRW 2.099 trillion, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 1.606 trillion.
- 2026(E): Revenue KRW 5.384 trillion, Operating Profit KRW 2.487 trillion (OPM 46.2%), Pre-tax Profit KRW 2.623 trillion, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 1.943 trillion, EPS KRW 27,300 (+21.0%), ROE 16.4%, P/E 50.5x, P/B 7.6x, EV/EBITDA 21.1x.
- 2026 Standalone Forecast:
- Standalone Revenue estimated at KRW 5.3845 trillion (+18.2% YoY) and Operating Profit at KRW 2.4870 trillion (+19.1% YoY, OPM 46.2%), excluding Rockville figures which will be fully consolidated starting 3Q26.
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q26 Provisional Results Review:
- Consolidated Revenue reached KRW 1.3209 trillion (+30.2% YoY) and Operating Profit reached KRW 586.4 billion (+22.9% YoY, OPM 46.2%), meeting consensus estimates (Revenue KRW 1.3007 trillion, OP KRW 585.1 billion).
- Favorable FX effects compensated for upfront expenses incurred from Rockville operations and initial Plant 5 preparations.
- Labor dispute-related production disruptions of ~20 batches (~KRW 150 billion) are expected to be offset by full-scale dual-plant operations starting in 3Q26.
- Second-Half Outlook & Full-Year Targets:
- Commercial revenue recognition from both Plant 5 and the Rockville facility begins in 3Q26, enhancing operational profitability.
- Full-year revenue growth is projected to reach the upper bound of the company’s 15–20% annual guidance range.
- Order Inflow & Mid-to-Long Term Catalysts:
- 1H order intake stood at ~$500mn due to tariff-related policy uncertainties, which have significantly eased entering 2H.
- Currently holding ~$2.6bn in non-binding CDMO agreements; sequential conversion into formal binding contracts is expected to trigger ground-breaking for Plant 6 within the year.
- Structural expansion underway with new capacity investments in peptide CDMO alongside growth in high-margin ADC modalities.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Biologics not as a company constrained by short-term labor issues or first-half order delays, but as a resilient global biomanufacturing powerhouse expanding its operational scale and diversifying its portfolio into peptide and ADC modalities amid robust global CDMO demand. The perspective interprets the recent multiple contraction as an overreaction to transient sentiment headwinds, placing primary emphasis on the inflection point of second-half order conversions and operational capacity expansion.
To verify whether this investment thesis unfolds as projected, the key monitoring points are the sequential conversion rate of the ~$2.6bn non-binding pipeline into binding master agreements, the official announcement of Plant 6 ground-breaking, and the actual revenue ramp-up and margin contributions from Plant 5 and the Rockville facility starting in 3Q26. These developments can be tracked through upcoming quarterly earnings presentations, regulatory contract disclosures on DART, and official periodic financial reports.
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