Brokerage : IBK Securities
Analyst : Un-ho Kim
Investment Rating : Buy (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 350,000 (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : Quarterly operating profit is projected to expand sequentially through 2H26, supported by sustained DRAM/NAND ASPs, demand secured via LTAs, and the transition of memory roles driven by AI.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: Buy maintained, Target Price upgraded by 45.8% to KRW 350,000 (Previous KRW 240,000; Current price as of April 7, 2026: KRW 196,500)
- Valuation Methodology: Applied a P/B of 3.2x to the 2026F expected BPS of KRW 110,112
- Key Valuation Multiples (2026F): P/E 4.0x, P/B 1.8x, ROE 56.4%, EV/EBITDA 2.3x, Dividend Yield 0.9%
- Per-Share Metrics (2026F): EPS KRW 48,848 (Upward revision from KRW 24,632, YoY +644.2%), BPS KRW 110,112
- Annual Financial Projections:
- 2024: Revenue KRW 300.87T, Operating Profit KRW 32.73T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 33.62T
- 2025: Revenue KRW 333.61T, Operating Profit KRW 43.60T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 44.26T
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 676.44T, Operating Profit KRW 365.05T (OP margin 54.0%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 325.83T
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 839.25T, Operating Profit KRW 515.72T (OP margin 61.5%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 466.51T
- 2028F: Revenue KRW 994.38T, Operating Profit KRW 657.55T (OP margin 66.1%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 603.89T
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 1Q26 Preliminary Earnings Breakdown:
- Revenue reached KRW 133T (+41.7% vs. 4Q25), Operating Profit reached KRW 57T (2.8x increase vs. 4Q25)
- DS Division: DRAM and NAND ASP increases significantly exceeded previous projections, driving the overall company earnings beat
- Other Segments: MX posted higher-than-expected earnings prior to full memory cost reflection; SDC projections were revised upward
- Quarterly Profit Trajectory:
- Driven by expectations that memory prices will not decline, quarterly operating profit is projected to scale continuously into 2H26
- Quarterly Operating Profit Forecasts: 2Q26 KRW 86T → 3Q26 KRW 106T → 4Q26 KRW 115T
- Structural Demand & Cycle Mitigation:
- Demand secured via Long-Term Agreements (LTAs) limits the likelihood of sudden demand cliffs or sharp price drops typical of previous cycles
- Acceleration in AI-led memory demand expansion and structural shifts in memory utilization within systems
- Expectations for significant easing of HBM-related concerns in 2026
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electronics as a structural earnings grower scaling quarterly operating profit beyond the KRW 100T threshold, underpinned by AI-driven demand expansion, the evolving system role of memory, and demand secured through LTAs. This perspective places primary emphasis on the resilience of DRAM and NAND pricing and cycle mitigation through long-term contracts, which outweighs traditional cyclical pullback concerns while anticipating an easing of HBM-related headwinds.
To verify whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, key verification points include whether quarterly operating profits meet sequential targets in 2Q (KRW 86T) and 2H (3Q KRW 106T, 4Q KRW 115T), whether DRAM/NAND pricing holds firm via LTA commitments, and whether HBM-related concerns continue to ease through tangible business execution. These developments can be tracked through upcoming quarterly earnings announcements, official IR materials, regulatory filings, and periodic financial reports.
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