Brokerage : Kiwoom Securities
Analyst : Jun-soo Kwon
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintain)
Target Price : KRW 430,000 (Raised)
Core Momentum : Supported by 4Q25 results meeting consensus and passing an earnings trough, rapid SPE line conversions for North American LFP ESS contracts and intact timelines for 2H27 all-solid-state battery mass production underpin long-term growth.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintain), Target Price KRW 430,000 (Raised reflecting multiple adjustments, maintaining BUY on long-term growth prospects)
- Market Data (As of 2026-02-02): Close KRW 356,000, KOSPI 4,949.67pt, Market Cap KRW 28.69 Trillion, Shares Outstanding 80.59 Million, Foreign Ownership 23.7%, Dividend Yield (2025E) 0.0%, BPS (2025E) KRW 257,667
- Key Financial Forecasts (2025F → 2026F):
- Revenue: KRW 13.27 Trillion → KRW 14.72 Trillion (YoY +11.0%)
- Operating Profit: KRW -1.72 Trillion (Loss Continued) → KRW -481.9 Billion (Loss Continued, Narrowed Substantially)
- EBITDA: KRW 377.6 Billion → KRW 1.84 Trillion
- Pre-tax Profit: KRW -1.36 Trillion → KRW 96.9 Billion (Turnaround)
- Net Profit: KRW -584.9 Billion → KRW 73.8 Billion (Turnaround)
- Net Profit (Controlling): KRW -649.5 Billion → KRW 69.4 Billion (Turnaround)
- EPS: KRW -8,194 → KRW 825 (Turnaround)
- Operating Margin (OPM): -13.0% → -3.3%
- ROE: -3.1% → 0.3%
- PER / PBR: -32.9x / 1.05x → 431.4x / 1.32x
- EV/EBITDA: 85.1x → 20.8x
- Net Debt Ratio: 35.2% → 30.6%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 4Q25 Earnings Review (Operating Loss of KRW -299.2 Billion, In Line with Consensus):
- Consolidated Results: Revenue reached KRW 3.9 Trillion (QoQ +26%, YoY +3%) and Operating Loss was KRW -299.2 Billion (Loss continued QoQ/YoY), meeting consensus (KRW -301.4 Billion).
- Divisional Breakdown: Mid-to-large EV revenue surged +39% QoQ supported by estimated customer compensation (KRW 300–400 Billion) for volume shortfalls and rising ESS shipments. ESS revenue jumped +44% QoQ, with 4Q AMPC recognition of KRW 79.8 Billion from US plant operations. Despite one-off recall provisions, operating losses narrowed QoQ thanks to compensation and AMPC benefits.
- 1Q26 Outlook (Projected Operating Loss of KRW -247.8 Billion): Revenue is forecast at KRW 3.5 Trillion (QoQ -8%, YoY +12%) and Operating Loss at KRW -247.8 Billion (Loss continued QoQ/YoY). Mid-to-large EV revenue is projected to decline 23% QoQ primarily due to the expiration of 4Q25 client compensation, despite expected inventory restocking by some European customers such as Audi. ESS revenue growth will moderate to +5% QoQ on off-peak seasonality, and electronic materials will drop -9% QoQ. Losses will continue due to low plant utilization, though narrowing compared to 4Q25.
- Trough Passing & Medium-Term Catalysts:
- Earnings Bottom: Having passed the operating profit bottom in 3Q25, full-year losses will narrow sharply with a quarterly turnaround expected in 4Q26.
- SPE Line Reallocations: Rapid conversions of SPE fab lines are underway to support North American LFP ESS order wins, maximizing AMPC benefits from 4Q26.
- Solid-State & OEM MoUs: Maintaining the 2H27 all-solid-state battery mass-production timeline, upcoming momentum around InterBattery (March 11–13), and strengthened partnerships with BMW and Hyundai Motor via MoUs on high-performance batteries.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung SDI as a battery manufacturer passing its cyclical operating profit trough (formed in 3Q25), maintaining high strategic momentum toward a 4Q26 operating profit turnaround through rapid SPE line reallocations for North American LFP ESS orders. This perspective places primary importance on the expansion of AMPC credits from 4Q26, strict adherence to the 2H27 all-solid-state mass-production roadmap, and deepened collaborations with key OEMs (BMW, Hyundai Motor), rather than transient utilization headwinds in 1Q26.
To evaluate the ongoing validity of this investment thesis, key monitoring factors include the execution pace of SPE line conversions to ESS, the magnitude of AMPC expansion in 4Q26 driving a quarterly operating profit inflection, and verifiable milestones toward 2H27 solid-state battery mass production alongside OEM partnership execution. These operational developments can be tracked through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official company IR updates, and statutory regulatory filings.
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