Brokerage : DS Investment & Securities
Analyst : Min-jeong Kim
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 320,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Rapid commercial penetration of new biosimilars including Omlyclo and Stevqeyma, paired with COGS ratio stabilization, driving solid annual operating profit growth
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating and Target Price: BUY (Maintained, Large-Cap Top Pick), Target Price KRW 320,000 (Maintained), offering 61.8% upside potential against the base share price of KRW 197,800 (as of 05/04).
- Consolidated Financial Summary & Forecasts (K-IFRS):
- 2023: Revenue KRW 2,176B, Operating Profit KRW 651B (OPM 29.9%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 536B, EPS KRW 2,235, P/E 83.0x, P/B 2.4x, ROE 5.1%, EV/EBITDA 34.1x
- 2024: Revenue KRW 3,557B, Operating Profit KRW 492B (OPM 13.8%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 423B, EPS KRW 1,789, P/E 100.9x, P/B 2.2x, ROE 2.5%, EV/EBITDA 45.9x
- 2025: Revenue KRW 4,162B, Operating Profit KRW 1,168B (OPM 28.1%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 1,030B, EPS KRW 4,704, P/E 38.5x, P/B 2.4x, ROE 5.9%, EV/EBITDA 30.4x
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 5,397B (+29.6% YoY), Operating Profit KRW 1,800B (+54.1% YoY, OPM 33.4%), Pre-tax Profit KRW 1,993B, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 1,809B, EPS KRW 8,265, P/E 23.9x, P/B 2.7x, ROE 10.6%, EV/EBITDA 21.0x
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 5,450B, Operating Profit KRW 1,001B (OPM 18.4%), Pre-tax Profit KRW 1,188B, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 864B, EPS KRW 3,949, P/E 50.1x, P/B 2.6x, ROE 5.0%, EV/EBITDA 32.0x
- 1Q26 Earnings Review:
- Consolidated Revenue reached approximately KRW 1,145.0B (+35.9% YoY) and Operating Profit reached KRW 321.9B (+115.5% YoY, OPM 28.1%).
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Commercial Growth in Key New Products:
- Omlyclo (Xolair biosimilar): Entered Europe as a first mover, generating ~KRW 49.3B (+76.6% QoQ) in 4Q25 and ~KRW 71.7B (+45.5% QoQ) in 1Q26. Expanding into the US and Latin America to accelerate prescription adoption via first-mover advantage.
- Stevqeyma / Eydenzelt: Posted ~KRW 68.5B in 1Q sales supported by exclusive inclusion on CVS Caremark’s preferred drug list, with ongoing expansion expected as Amgen’s originator was excluded from CVS preferred coverage.
- Product Mix Shift and Cost Stabilization: The sales contribution of new products reached ~60% in 1Q26, targeting over 70% on an annual basis. This mix shift is projected to stabilize the COGS ratio into the mid-30% range, supporting operating profit expansion.
- Regional Pipeline Expansion in 2H26: 2026 marks the commercial acceleration of second-wave biosimilars, driven by Omlyclo’s 2H26 US launch, Avtozma’s European launch, and Yuflyma’s Japan rollout.
- Capacity Expansion & Shareholder Returns: Establishing a global capacity of 571kL through expansions at Branchburg (~75kL) and Songdo Plants 4–5 (~180kL), alongside shareholder-friendly actions including the cancellation of 488,878 treasury shares on May 6.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Celltrion as a biopharmaceutical enterprise elevating its operational profitability by expanding the revenue mix of second-generation biosimilars—such as Omlyclo and Stevqeyma—and stabilizing its cost of sales ratio. This perspective emphasizes early market penetration via first-mover positioning and the scaling of global manufacturing infrastructure over short-term quarterly fluctuations.
To determine whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, key tracking points will be whether Omlyclo’s 2H26 US launch, Avtozma’s European launch, and Yuflyma’s Japan rollout proceed on schedule to achieve the targeted >70% new product revenue mix for the full year, and whether the COGS ratio stabilizes in the mid-30% range to sustain projected operating margins. These developments can be verified through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR presentations, and periodic corporate disclosures.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
Contact: Compliance and Copyright Inquiries (ksb220805@gmail.com)
