Brokerage : Hana Securities
Analyst : Seona Kim (RA: Heekyung Lee)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 2,050,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Despite initial operating expenses and short-term production disruptions, full-year revenue growth is poised to reach the upper end of guidance supported by Rockville facility integration and favorable FX, while business expansion structurally scales mid-to-long term capability.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY rating maintained; 12-month Target Price maintained at KRW 2,050,000.
- Valuation Methodology: Derived by applying a target EV/EBITDA of 31.5x (average of Dec 2025F and Dec 2026F) to the 2027E EBITDA present value (WACC 9.2%), combined with the KRW 2.7 trillion acquisition value of PolyPeptide Group.
- Annual Financial Forecast (K-IFRS Consolidated):
- 2024: Revenue KRW 3.4971 trillion, Operating Profit KRW 1.3214 trillion (OPM 37.8%), Pre-tax Profit KRW 1.4024 trillion, Net Profit KRW 1.0510 trillion, EPS KRW 14,766, P/E 94.59x, P/B 10.71x, EV/EBITDA 41.59x, ROE 12.00%.
- 2025: Revenue KRW 4.5570 trillion, Operating Profit KRW 2.0681 trillion (OPM 45.4%), Pre-tax Profit KRW 2.0790 trillion, Net Profit KRW 1.5662 trillion, EPS KRW 23,621 (+59.97% YoY), P/E 71.76x, P/B 9.21x, EV/EBITDA 31.97x, ROE 19.00%.
- 2026(E): Revenue KRW 5.6019 trillion, Operating Profit KRW 2.4460 trillion (OPM 43.7%), Pre-tax Profit KRW 2.5442 trillion, Net Profit KRW 1.8904 trillion, EPS KRW 40,838 (+72.89% YoY), P/E 33.77x, P/B 6.13x, EV/EBITDA 22.42x, ROE 22.62%.
- 2027(E): Revenue KRW 6.5740 trillion, Operating Profit KRW 2.9415 trillion (OPM 44.7%), Pre-tax Profit KRW 3.0105 trillion, Net Profit KRW 2.2579 trillion, EPS KRW 48,776 (+19.44% YoY), P/E 28.27x, P/B 5.04x, EV/EBITDA 18.58x, ROE 21.65%.
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q26 Review:
- Consolidated Revenue reached KRW 1.3209 trillion (+30.2% YoY) and Operating Profit reached KRW 586.4 billion (+23.0% YoY, OPM 44.4%), broadly in line with consensus (Revenue KRW 1.3208 trillion, OP KRW 599.1 billion).
- Maintained stable top-line growth despite labor dispute impacts and zero revenue contribution from the Rockville facility acquired in 1Q.
- Operating margin slightly missed consensus by -1%p due to upfront costs for Plant 5 PPQ batches and pre-operating expenses at Rockville (depreciation for Rockville recognized at ~KRW 5.0 billion; goodwill/bargain purchase gain to be finalized post-PPA).
- 3Q26 Outlook & Second-Half Catalysts:
- 3Q26 estimated Revenue of KRW 1.4522 trillion (+15.5% YoY, +9.9% QoQ).
- Commercial revenue recognition from the Rockville site (~KRW 100 billion) will begin in 3Q26.
- Disruption from the 5-day general strike in May will be reflected in 3Q26 (company estimates KRW 150 billion vs. Hana Securities estimates KRW 79.4 billion).
- Guidance & Scale Expansion:
- Reaching the upper bound of full-year revenue guidance (YoY +20% or higher) remains well achievable supported by sustained FX tailwinds (~1,480 KRW/USD) and Rockville contributions.
- Rockville site (60kL) is projected to generate annual revenue of KRW 400–500 billion at full utilization (50% of capacity secured with GSK for 5 years; baseline annual contribution of KRW 200–250 billion expected).
- While PPA accounting may adjust short-term margin profiles due to depreciation, this is viewed as an inevitable transition cost in expanding client acquisition and diversification.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Biologics not as an entity constrained by short-term margin dilution from initial depreciation or temporary labor strikes, but as a tier-1 global CDMO scaling its operational breadth through US manufacturing footprint expansion (Rockville) and modality diversification (PolyPeptide Group). The perspective emphasizes mid-to-long term capability scaling and client footprint expansion over temporary quarterly operating margin fluctuations.
To determine whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key verification points include tracking the initial commercial revenue recognition from the Rockville site starting in 3Q26 (~KRW 100 billion expected), the finalization of PPA accounting impacts on the cost structure, and the closing and integration progress of the KRW 2.7 trillion PolyPeptide Group acquisition. These operational milestones can be verified through future quarterly earnings releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings on DART.
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