Brokerage : Hana Securities
Analyst : Seona Kim (RA: Changkeun Yoo)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 580,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Sustained quarterly milestone inflows following licensing-heavy 1Q26 earnings, strategic differentiation highlighted by GSK’s deal structures, and favorable expectations for the upcoming PGR final written decision in early June.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / Target Price (12M) KRW 580,000 (Maintained) (Derived based on 2029E EBIT, unchanged by quarterly estimate adjustments; closing price as of May 12, 2026: KRW 342,000)
- Market Data: KOSDAQ Index 1,179.29pt / Market Cap KRW 18.31 Trillion (Market Cap Weight 2.78%) / Shares Outstanding 53,533,800 / 60-Day Average Trading Volume 349.0 Thousand Shares / 60-Day Average Trading Value KRW 12.95 Billion / Foreign Ownership 14.15% / 52-Week High KRW 559,000, Low KRW 317,500 / Major Shareholders: Soonjae Park and 4 affiliates 20.35%, Inwoo Hyung and 2 affiliates 5.09%
- Annual Financial Forecast (Hana Securities Estimates):
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 470.3 Billion (+117.8% YoY), Operating Profit KRW 246.1 Billion (+130.2% YoY, OPM 52.3%), Pre-tax Profit KRW 294.0 Billion, Net Profit KRW 233.0 Billion, EPS KRW 4,320 (+64.07% YoY), BPS KRW 12,228, PER 79.17x, PBR 27.97x, ROE 42.24%, EV/EBITDA 69.89x, DPS KRW 371
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 1.05 Trillion (+123.8% YoY), Operating Profit KRW 608.7 Billion (+147.3% YoY, OPM 57.8%), Pre-tax Profit KRW 622.4 Billion, Net Profit KRW 493.3 Billion, EPS KRW 9,146 (+111.71% YoY), BPS KRW 21,005, PER 37.39x, PBR 16.28x, ROE 55.12%, EV/EBITDA 28.36x, DPS KRW 371
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 1Q26 Financial Review & Steady Milestone Streams:
- Posted 1Q26 revenue of KRW 71.6 Billion and operating profit of KRW 39.3 Billion (OPM 54.9%). Licensing revenue accounted for ~94.5% (KRW 67.7 Billion) of sales, primarily driven by USD 40 Million (~KRW 58.7 Billion) in upfront payments from GSK (Jan) and Biogen (Mar).
- Robust operating margins (47%–56% OPM range) are projected throughout subsequent quarters, supported by Qlex sales milestones (triggered at cumulative USD 0.5B in Q2/Q3 and USD 1.0B in Q4), Imfinzi SC Phase 1 first dosing, high-dose Dupixent SC Phase 1 entry, and short-term Enhertu milestones (potential new L/O upfronts of ~$20M per product).
- Interpreting GSK’s Enhanze Deal & Opportunities to Assess Peer Positioning:
- On May 7, GSK signed an agreement applying Halozyme’s Enhanze to ADC candidates (presumed to be mocertatug rezetecan or risvutatug rezetecan).
- GSK adopted ALT-B4 for its fast-growing commercial asset Jemperli (+40% YoY in 1Q26), while utilizing Enhanze for unvalidated ADC candidates to manage upfront exploratory financial risks.
- Upcoming H2 catalysts—including Enhertu SC Phase 1 interim dose escalation results and biosimilar partnership readouts (Intas, Year 5 of development)—are expected to provide opportunities to assess ALT-B4’s potential relevance and applicability in the ADC space.
- Near-Term Catalyst: PGR Final Ruling by June 2:
- Following the preliminary patent invalidation ruling obtained on June 2, 2025, and given that Halozyme has not introduced decisive counter-evidence, the analyst expects a favorable final PGR written decision for Alteogen by June 2, 2026.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Alteogen as a highly profitable drug delivery platform enterprise capable of sustaining robust ~50% operating margins throughout 2026, supported by upfront licensing fees in Q1 and a structured cadence of Qlex sales milestones and clinical progress fees in subsequent quarters. The overarching perspective prioritizes the rational interpretation of GSK’s dual-partnering strategy, the potential to assess ALT-B4’s applicability in ADCs through Enhertu SC Phase 1 interim readouts, and favorable expectations surrounding the PTAB’s final PGR decision by June 2 over transient market sentiment pullbacks.
To verify whether this investment thesis progresses as expected, investors should primarily monitor the final written PGR decision by June 2, the recognition of commercial sales milestones as Qlex surpasses USD 0.5B and USD 1.0B cumulative sales thresholds, the release of Enhertu SC Phase 1 interim dose escalation data within the year, and milestone recognitions from clinical advances in Imfinzi SC and high-dose Dupixent SC. These developments can be verified through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official company IR presentations, and regulatory filings on DART/KRX.
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