Market: KOSPI (017670)
Brokerage : Eugene Investment & Securities
Analyst : Chan-young Lee
Investment Rating : HOLD (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 94,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : While 2Q operational recovery and SK Broadband growth support 2026 operating profit returning to pre-incident levels of KRW 1.97 Trillion, a conservative HOLD stance is maintained due to institutional selling pressure when dividend yields drop to the 2-3% range, potential volatility if an anticipated Anthropic listing materializes, and the need for tangible AIDC contract visibility.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: HOLD (Maintained), Target Price KRW 94,000 (Maintained, Upside Potential 11.0%).
- Valuation Multiples: 2026E P/E 13.9x, P/B 1.4x, EV/EBITDA 4.8x, Dividend Yield 4.2% / 2027E P/E 12.1x, P/B 1.3x, EV/EBITDA 4.4x.
- Financial Estimates:
- 2025A: Revenue KRW 17.10 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 1.07 Trillion, Pre-tax Profit KRW 722.0 Billion, Net Profit KRW 375.0 Billion, EPS KRW 1,901 (-67.3% YoY), ROE 3.3%, P/E 28.1x, P/B 0.9x, EV/EBITDA 4.4x.
- 2026E: Revenue KRW 17.71 Trillion (+3.6% YoY), Operating Profit KRW 1.97 Trillion (+83.7% YoY, revised up from KRW 1.88 Trillion), Pre-tax Profit KRW 1.70 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 1.28 Trillion, EPS KRW 6,073 (+219.4% YoY), ROE 10.0%, P/E 13.9x, P/B 1.4x, EV/EBITDA 4.8x, Dividend Yield 4.2%.
- 2027E: Revenue KRW 18.05 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW 2.14 Trillion (+8.3% YoY, revised up from KRW 1.98 Trillion), Pre-tax Profit KRW 1.90 Trillion, Net Profit KRW 1.48 Trillion, EPS KRW 7,010 (+15.4% YoY), ROE 11.0%, P/E 12.1x, P/B 1.3x, EV/EBITDA 4.4x.
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q26 Earnings Preview:
- Consolidated Revenue projected at KRW 4.41 Trillion (+1.7% YoY) and Operating Profit at KRW 544.5 Billion (+61.0% YoY), slightly beating market consensus.
- Overall earnings rebound supported by SK Broadband growth and one-off political text messaging revenue.
- SK Broadband: Operating Profit estimated at KRW 121.6 Billion (expanding profit contribution to 22%), driven by data center utilization gains, contract renewal rate increases, and voluntary redundancy cost savings.
- 2026 Annual Outlook & Shareholder Returns:
- 2026 full-year Operating Profit is projected to reach KRW 1.97 Trillion (+83.7% YoY), recovering to pre-security breach profitability levels.
- Capital reduction dividends will be implemented starting with the 4Q26 year-end payout; downside risk to dividends remains limited despite capital commitments to the US AI subsidiary.
- Between Telco and Growth: Structural Valuation Ceiling:
- YTD stock movement traded closer to growth equities; however, with fixed annual DPS, share price appreciation driving dividend yields down into the 2-3% range consistently triggers institutional selling, capping valuation at the top of the historical telco band.
- Recent share price momentum has been driven more by Anthropic equity revaluation than core fundamental changes; the report expects related momentum could re-emerge ahead of a potential October listing, though potential post-event news exhaustion warrants caution.
- To justify a growth multiple, concrete milestones must precede speculation—encompassing site-specific tenant contracts, expansion timelines, Capex scale, and expected profitability. Without tangible metrics, downside risk remains toward a 5% dividend yield peer baseline.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst characterizes SK Telecom as a regulated telecom operator successfully restoring annual operating profit to pre-incident levels of KRW 1.97 Trillion in 2026 behind 2Q cost efficiencies and SK Broadband’s data center expansion. However, the core perspective maintains a prudent HOLD stance, emphasizing that fixed DPS creates a recurring valuation ceiling as dividend yields compress to 2-3%, while potential news exhaustion surrounding an anticipated Anthropic listing and the absence of site-specific customer commitments and profitability metrics for its AIDC pipeline leave the equity vulnerable to multiple compression back to traditional telco yield levels.
To evaluate whether this investment thesis holds true, key tracking points include achieving 2Q operating profit of KRW 544.5 Billion and full-year operating profit of KRW 1.97 Trillion, board execution of the 4Q26 capital reduction dividend, whether the anticipated Anthropic listing materializes and how SK Telecom’s share price reacts thereafter, and verified disclosures regarding site-specific customer contract volumes, power procurement, and project timelines for the AIDC pipeline. These factors can be monitored through SK Telecom’s quarterly financial disclosures, IR releases, and periodic regulatory filings.
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Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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