Brokerage : iM Securities
Analyst : Jaewon Jeong
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 1,900,000 (Lowered)
Core Momentum : Full-scale revenue recognition from Plant 5 and the US Rockville site starting in 3Q, along with the tender offer acquisition of Switzerland’s PolyPeptide Group, structurally diversifies the mid-to-long term CDMO growth portfolio.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY rating maintained; 12-month Target Price lowered to KRW 1,900,000 (37.8% upside potential from closing price KRW 1,379,000).
- Valuation Methodology: Derived via DCF model with a 4% terminal growth rate reflecting solid CDMO industry fundamentals and geopolitical tailwinds from US-China tensions. Target price adjusted following earnings estimate revisions and capex model updates (Plant 6 ground-breaking and Campus 3 schedule).
- Annual Financial Forecast (K-IFRS Consolidated Summary):
- 2025: Revenue KRW 4.5570 trillion, Operating Profit KRW 2.0680 trillion, Net Profit KRW 1.5860 trillion, EPS KRW 23,621, BPS KRW 160,192, P/E 71.8x, P/B 10.6x, EV/EBITDA 32.0x, ROE 19.0%.
- 2026(E): Revenue KRW 5.4190 trillion, Operating Profit KRW 2.5680 trillion, Net Profit KRW 2.0050 trillion, EPS KRW 43,305, BPS KRW 203,431, P/E 31.8x, P/B 6.8x, EV/EBITDA 20.0x, ROE 23.8%.
- 2027(E): Revenue KRW 6.9090 trillion, Operating Profit KRW 3.3250 trillion, Net Profit KRW 2.5650 trillion, EPS KRW 55,420, BPS KRW 258,785, P/E 24.9x, P/B 5.3x, EV/EBITDA 15.5x, ROE 24.0%.
- 2028(E): Revenue KRW 7.0990 trillion, Operating Profit KRW 3.2450 trillion, Net Profit KRW 2.5190 trillion, EPS KRW 54,418, BPS KRW 313,137, P/E 25.3x, P/B 4.4x, EV/EBITDA 15.5x, ROE 19.0%.
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q26 Results Review:
- Generated Revenue of KRW 1.3209 trillion (+30% YoY) and Operating Profit of KRW 586.4 billion (+23% YoY, OPM 44%), slightly missing consensus (Revenue KRW 1.3222 trillion, OP KRW 599.7 billion) due to upfront pre-operating expenses for Plant 5 and Rockville.
- Maintained full utilization across Plants 1–4.
- Strike-related revenue impacts will be recognized in 3Q; however, annual guidance target achievement remains intact due to resilient delivery schedules and FX tailwinds.
- Commercial Ramp-up & Sales Network Expansion:
- Commercial revenue recognition starts in 3Q from both Plant 5 and the Rockville facility.
- Establishing a new sales office in the Netherlands during 3Q, securing a direct commercial presence across the three key markets (US, Asia, and Europe) to enhance European client engagement and drive new orders.
- Global M&A (PolyPeptide Group Tender Offer):
- Disclosed transaction on July 20 to acquire Swiss peptide CDMO PolyPeptide Group for ~KRW 2.7 trillion (all-cash tender offer at CHF 44.31 per share, representing a ~6% premium over the prior closing price).
- Major shareholder Draupnir Holding B.V. (55.65% stake) agreed to tender shares, de-risking transaction execution with only ~10% additional free-float acquisition required.
- Targeting year-end regulatory closing, delisting from SIX Swiss Exchange, and inclusion as a 100% wholly-owned subsidiary.
- PolyPeptide brings ~70 years of peptide API manufacturing history, 1,000+ project track records, manufacturing partnerships for >30% of global Phase 3 peptide pipelines, and manufacturing sites across 5 countries.
- Modality & Pipeline Development:
- Diversifying from antibody drugs into ADC, CGT, and peptide modalities.
- Company confirmed during the earnings session that active contract discussions are progressing smoothly with multiple global clients.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Biologics not merely as a conventional large-scale antibody manufacturer, but as an expanding multi-modality global CDMO securing regional proximity via Plant 5, Rockville, and a new European sales hub while establishing immediate global peptide leadership through the PolyPeptide Group acquisition. The perspective places greater strategic importance on global geographic decentralization and modality expansion than on short-term upfront operating expenses or capex schedule revisions.
To verify whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key monitoring milestones include tracking the initial commercial revenue recognition from Plant 5 and the Rockville site in 3Q26, the formal closing and delisting process of the KRW 2.7 trillion PolyPeptide Group acquisition by year-end, and the conversion of European client discussions into definitive contracts via the newly established Netherlands sales office. These developments can be monitored through future quarterly earnings presentations, investor relations materials, and regulatory filings on DART.
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