Brokerage : IBK Securities
Analyst : Lee-soo Jung
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 250,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Expanding sales share of new biosimilar products and operating leverage from top-line growth supporting progressive margin improvements in the second half
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating and Target Price: BUY (Maintained), Target Price KRW 250,000 (Maintained), Base Share Price KRW 194,700 (as of 5/6).
- EPS Forecast Revisions: 2026F EPS KRW 6,780 (raised from KRW 6,155), 2027F EPS KRW 7,090 (lowered from KRW 7,356).
- Consolidated Financial Summary & Forecasts:
- 2024A: Revenue KRW 3,557B, Operating Profit KRW 492B (OPM 13.8%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 423B, EPS KRW 1,787, P/E 101.1x, P/B 2.4x, ROE 2.5%, EV/EBITDA 46.0x
- 2025A: Revenue KRW 4,162B, Operating Profit KRW 1,168B (OPM 28.1%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 1,030B, EPS KRW 4,447, P/E 40.7x, P/B 2.4x, ROE 5.9%, EV/EBITDA 30.5x
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 5,332B (+28.1% YoY), Operating Profit KRW 1,817B (+55.5% YoY, OPM 34.1%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 1,520B, EPS KRW 6,780, P/E 29.2x, P/B 2.4x, ROE 8.5%, EV/EBITDA 22.5x, Dividend Yield 0.4%
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 6,047B, Operating Profit KRW 2,080B (OPM 34.4%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 1,573B, EPS KRW 7,090, P/E 27.9x, P/B 2.2x, ROE 8.2%, EV/EBITDA 19.8x
- 2028F: Revenue KRW 6,567B, Operating Profit KRW 2,225B (OPM 33.9%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 1,677B, EPS KRW 7,557, P/E 26.2x, P/B 2.0x, ROE 8.1%, EV/EBITDA 18.4x
- 1Q26 Earnings Review:
- Consolidated Revenue reached KRW 1,145.0B (+36.0% YoY) and Operating Profit was KRW 321.9B (+115.5% YoY, OPM 28.1%), slightly exceeding market consensus (Revenue KRW 1,126.2B, OP KRW 313.8B).
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 1Q26 Performance Drivers: Revenue growth was driven by a +67.8% YoY surge in new product sales and KRW 96.2B in CMO revenue from Teva. With the revenue share of new biosimilars increasing to 50.8% (+9.7%p YoY), OPM improved +10.4%p YoY to 28.1%. Profitability is positioned for further upside from 2Q as normal operations resume at the Branchburg facility following 1Q underutilization losses.
- H2 Earnings Trajectory and Catalysts:
- Earnings are expected to follow a bottom-in-1Q, peak-in-4Q trajectory.
- Driven by European biosimilar tenders concentrated in the second half, the addition of Ulcerative Colitis (UC) indications for Steqeyma in Europe, and US launches of Omlyclo and Eydenzelt.
- Operating leverage from top-line expansion is projected to drive full-year 2026 OPM to 34.1%.
- Guidance Execution & Shareholder Return: Meeting 1Q OP guidance (KRW 300B level) enhanced guidance credibility, alongside shareholder return initiatives including the decision to cancel KRW 100B of treasury shares.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Celltrion as a company improving profitability across consecutive quarters, driven by an expanding revenue share of new biosimilars and operating leverage resulting from top-line growth. This perspective highlights the progression of margin expansion—beginning with the achievement of 1Q guidance, the normalization of the Branchburg facility, European tender reflections in 2H, and upcoming US product launches—over single-quarter metrics.
To determine whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, key tracking points will be whether the resumption of normalized operations at the Branchburg facility eliminates underutilization losses from 2Q, whether 2H US rollouts (Omlyclo, Eydenzelt) and European tenders drive continued sales growth for the new product portfolio, and whether top-line growth and operating leverage support the projected 34.1% full-year operating margin. These developments can be verified through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR presentations, and periodic corporate disclosures.
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