Brokerage : Kiwoom Securities
Analyst : Hyemin Huh
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 2,100,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Despite near-term raw material inflation and US plant acquisition overhead, 100% capacity utilization across Plants 1–4 and H2 Plant 5 revenue contributions will defend 2026 OPM at 2025 levels.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / Target Price KRW 2,100,000 (Maintained) (Closing price as of January 6, 2026: KRW 1,721,000)
- Market Data: KOSPI Index (1/6) 4,525.48pt / Market Cap KRW 79.67 Trillion / Shares Outstanding 46,291,000 / Foreign Ownership 12.7% / Dividend Yield (2025E) 0.0% / Major Shareholders: Samsung C&T and 3 affiliates 74.3%
- Annual Financial Forecast (Kiwoom Securities Estimates):
- 2025F: Revenue KRW 4.52 Trillion (+29.2% YoY), Operating Profit KRW 2.07 Trillion (+56.0% YoY, OPM 45.7%), EBITDA KRW 2.36 Trillion, Pre-tax Profit KRW 2.07 Trillion, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 1.55 Trillion, EPS KRW 21,825 (+47.8% YoY), BPS KRW 152,100, PER 77.7x, PBR 11.14x, ROE 15.5%, EV/EBITDA 33.0x, Net Debt Ratio -6.9%
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 5.34 Trillion (+18.1% YoY), Operating Profit KRW 2.40 Trillion (+16.0% YoY, OPM 44.9%), EBITDA KRW 2.66 Trillion, Pre-tax Profit KRW 2.46 Trillion, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 1.84 Trillion, EPS KRW 25,892 (+18.6% YoY), PER 66.5x, PBR 9.68x, ROE 15.7%, EV/EBITDA 29.3x, Net Debt Ratio -13.9%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Q4 2025 Earnings Preview & Consensus Alignment:
- Consolidated Q4 revenue is projected at KRW 1.25 Trillion (+31% YoY, -1% QoQ) and operating profit at KRW 525.4 Billion (+67% YoY, -17% QoQ, OPM 42%), largely meeting market consensus estimates (Revenue KRW 1.24 Trillion, OP KRW 539.1 Billion).
- While slight raw material cost increases and consulting fees related to the GSK plant acquisition (announced in December) are expected, solid margins are supported by favorable FX rates (Q4 average 1,451 KRW/USD, +3% YoY) and 100% capacity utilization across Plants 1–4. Plant 5 is progressing through its ramp-up phase.
- 2026 Growth Sustainability & Cost Variables:
- Key cost factors in 2026 include sustained high FX levels, additional payroll expenses from ~500 local employees at the acquired US GSK plant, and scheduled maintenance across legacy lines.
- The acquired GSK facility (60,000L) is estimated to yield an OPM of 20%–30%; given its modest scale relative to total domestic capacity (780,000L), any potential margin dilution remains highly manageable.
- Revenue generated from Plant 5 starting in H2 2026 will help offset scheduled plant maintenance costs, allowing full-year 2026 operating margin to remain largely on par with 2025 levels (mid-40% range).
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Biologics as a fundamentally solid global CDMO capable of defending its mid-40% OPM despite near-term cost headwinds (US acquisition fees, added payroll, and raw material inflation), underpinned by full utilization across Plants 1–4 and incremental H2 contributions from Plant 5. The overarching perspective prioritizes the structural margin resilience and top-line expansion enabled by Plant 5 commercialization over temporary quarterly profit pauses during overseas asset onboarding.
To verify whether this investment thesis progresses as expected, investors should primarily monitor the final 4Q25 earnings release confirming full-year 2025 operating profit exceeding KRW 2.0 Trillion, the timing and scale of initial commercial revenues from Plant 5 in H2 2026, and operating cost containment (including US site labor integration) to sustain full-year OPM in the mid-40% range. These developments can be verified through future quarterly earnings releases, official company IR presentations, and periodic financial disclosures.
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