Brokerage : iM Securities
Analyst : Won-seok Jung, Jung-ha Park
Investment Rating : Buy (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 700,000 (Lowered)
Core Momentum : Despite EV demand headwinds, medium- to long-term earnings visibility is set to improve driven by surging AIDC ESS demand and expanding North American market share as US regulatory curbs on Chinese batteries intensify.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: Buy (Maintained), Target Price KRW 700,000 (Lowered to reflect valuation multiple contractions across the global secondary battery sector)
- Valuation Methodology: Sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) combining operating value (applying 9.1x EV/EBITDA, the 2028F global peer average) and Samsung Display equity stake value
- Market Data (As of 2026-06-29): Close KRW 512,000 (Upside Potential 36.7%), Market Cap KRW 41.26 Trillion, Shares Outstanding 80.59 Million, Foreign Ownership 26.7%
- Key Financial Forecasts (2025 → 2026F → 2027F):
- Revenue: KRW 13.27 Trillion → KRW 15.88 Trillion → KRW 20.32 Trillion
- Operating Profit: KRW -1.998 Trillion → KRW 254.0 Billion (Turnaround) → KRW 1.84 Trillion
- Net Profit: KRW -649.0 Billion → KRW 4.0 Billion (Turnaround) → KRW 1.48 Trillion
- EPS: KRW -8,325 → KRW 44 → KRW 17,964
- BPS: KRW 260,851 → KRW 270,082 → KRW 297,256
- ROE: -3.2% → 0.0% → 6.3%
- PER / PBR: -x / 1.0x → 11,759.1x / 1.9x → 28.5x / 1.7x
- EV/EBITDA: 293.8x → 17.6x → 11.0x
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q26 Earnings Outlook: Projected Revenue of KRW 3.7 Trillion (YoY +16%, QoQ +3%) and Operating Profit of KRW 7.0 Billion (Turnaround YoY/QoQ), beating market expectations (Revenue KRW 3.7 Trillion, Operating Profit KRW -69.9 Billion).
- Automotive Batteries: While revenue is weighed down by volume declines at BMW and the expiration of prior one-off compensation, operating losses are expected to narrow as European shipments are supported by US SPE production with AMPC recognition.
- Small Batteries: Revenue share of BBU within cylindrical batteries is projected to expand into the mid-10% range in 2026 on strong AI Data Center (AIDC) demand; however, lingering power tool and e-bike inventory headwinds will keep the unit in operating loss.
- Electronic Materials: Solid shipments in semiconductor materials and seasonal recovery in OLED materials support positive results.
- AIDC ESS Opportunities & Policy Tailwinds:
- Surging AIDC Power Needs: Global shipments of AIDC-dedicated ESS batteries are projected to surge from ~12GWh in 2025 to ~272GWh in 2030, with active discussions underway with US hyperscalers.
- US Regulatory Benefits: US federal restrictions on Chinese ESS batteries intensifying from 2026 provide structural growth opportunities, facilitating North American market share gains and long-term order momentum.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung SDI not simply as a legacy EV cell maker facing near-term shipment adjustments from major auto OEMs, but as an energy infrastructure beneficiary positioned to expand its North American ESS market share by tapping into surging AI data center power demand and shifting US trade regulations. This perspective places primary emphasis on the structural expansion of the ESS business and policy tailwinds rather than transient cyclical weakness in pure automotive EV volumes.
To verify the ongoing validity of this investment thesis, key monitoring factors include the formalization of ESS supply agreements with US hyperscalers, market share expansion within North America under the intensifying US regulations on Chinese ESS from 2026, and revenue recognition from deferred domestic/global utility-scale ESS projects in 2H26. These operational milestones can be tracked via upcoming quarterly earnings announcements, official company IR presentations, and statutory regulatory filings.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
Investment Risk Notice: This content is provided for informational and linguistic reference purposes only. Under no circumstances does it constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. All investment decisions and financial responsibilities rest entirely with the investor.
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