Brokerage : Hana Securities
Analyst : Hyun-soo Kim, Ji-won Hong (RA)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 857,000 (Raised)
Core Momentum : Narrowing quarterly operating losses backed by rising Hungarian plant utilization and surging North American power-grid ESS demand, driving upward revisions for 2028 earnings and valuation multiple expansion.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained), Target Price KRW 857,000 (Raised by applying a multiple approaching the upper end of historical earnings-growth cycle P/E ranges to 2028F controlling net profit of KRW 2.0 Trillion)
- Market Data (As of 2026-04-28): Current Price KRW 680,000, Market Cap KRW 54.80 Trillion, KOSPI 6,641.02pt, Shares Outstanding 80,585.5 Thousand, Foreign Ownership 25.35%
- Key Financial Forecasts (2025 → 2026E → 2027E):
- Revenue: KRW 13.27 Trillion → KRW 15.70 Trillion → KRW 18.72 Trillion
- Operating Profit: KRW -1.72 Trillion → KRW -105.6 Billion (Loss Narrowed) → KRW 1.25 Trillion (Turnaround)
- Pre-tax Profit: KRW -1.36 Trillion → KRW 532.3 Billion (Turnaround) → KRW 1.85 Trillion
- Net Profit: KRW -649.5 Billion → KRW 353.4 Billion (Turnaround) → KRW 1.30 Trillion
- EPS: KRW -8,325 → KRW 4,299 (Turnaround) → KRW 15,785
- ROE: -3.2% → 1.63% → 5.78%
- PER / PBR: -32.37x / 1.02x → 158.18x / 2.52x → 43.08x / 2.38x
- EV/EBITDA: 314.44x → 41.46x → 29.54x
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 1Q26 Earnings Review: Revenue reached KRW 3.6 Trillion (YoY +13%, QoQ -7%) and Operating Loss came in at KRW -155.6 Billion (Loss continued YoY/QoQ), narrowing losses by KRW 143.6 Billion QoQ. Mid-to-large EV margins improved (OPM -9.4%, QoQ +5.4%p) supported by AMPC recognition and OEM compensation on US Stellantis JV output shipped to Europe. ESS revenue fell temporarily (-9% QoQ) due to workforce reallocation to Europe, but OPM reached 7.1% (including AMPC) as 4Q25 one-off costs subsided and US utilization rose.
- 2Q26 Earnings Outlook: Projected Revenue of KRW 3.6 Trillion (YoY +13%, QoQ +1%) and Operating Loss of KRW -65.0 Billion (QoQ loss narrowed by KRW 90.6 Billion), marking a third consecutive quarter of loss reductions supported by fixed-cost dilution and ESS volume recovery.
- Medium- to Long-Term Drivers & Valuation Re-rating:
- EV Utilization Recovery: Following a ~20% capacity reduction in Europe over the past three years to lower fixed costs, Hungarian plant utilization is projected to climb from ~50% currently to over 80% by 2027, propelled by new Hyundai model rollouts in 2H26, BMW in 2027, and Mercedes-Benz in 2028.
- North American Grid ESS Expansion: 2028 annual ESS shipments are projected at 35GWh (23GWh eligible for AMPC). Full-year 2028 earnings estimates are revised upward by 30% on surging US power grid demand.
- Valuation Multiple Re-rating: Valuation discounts relative to LG Energy Solution are expected to narrow as capacity expansion plans gain clarity alongside the potential monetization process of the Samsung Display (SDC) stake.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung SDI not as a short-lived technical rebound story like 2024, but as a fundamentally grounded turnaround battery manufacturer achieving simultaneous improvements in earnings and valuation multiples through European fixed-cost rationalization, rising factory utilization (from ~50% to over 80% by 2027), and accelerating North American grid ESS shipments. This perspective places primary importance on the structural growth of ESS addressing US power shortages and the narrowing of valuation discounts via SDC stake monetization, rather than near-term quarterly operating losses.
To assess the continuing validity of this investment thesis, key monitoring variables include the trajectory of Hungarian plant utilization toward the 80%+ level by 2027 driven by new OEM product cycles (Hyundai, BMW, Mercedes-Benz), the progression of North American ESS shipments toward the 35GWh target for 2028, and concrete operational milestones regarding the SDC stake monetization process to support medium-term capacity additions. These developments can be tracked through upcoming quarterly financial disclosures, IR presentations, and statutory regulatory filings.
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