Brokerage : Hanwha Investment & Securities
Analyst : Yong-wook Lee
Investment Rating : Buy (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 350,000 (Lowered)
Core Momentum : While 4Q25 results remained soft and EV battery recovery is delayed, commercial NCA ESS shipments from the STLA JV and the planned 2H26 North American LFP ESS startup serve as the primary growth engines.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: Buy (Maintained), Target Price KRW 350,000 (Lowered reflecting delayed automotive battery recovery)
- Market Data (As of 2026-01-06): Current Price KRW 277,000 (Upside Potential 26.4%), Market Cap KRW 22.32 Trillion, Shares Outstanding 80,586 Thousand, Foreign Ownership 23.5%
- Key Financial Forecasts (2025E → 2026E → 2027E):
- Revenue: KRW 13.14 Trillion → KRW 16.04 Trillion → KRW 22.89 Trillion
- Operating Profit: KRW -1.82 Trillion (Loss Continued) → KRW -620.0 Billion (Loss Narrowed) → KRW 1.58 Trillion (Turnaround)
- EBITDA: KRW 245.0 Billion → KRW 1.60 Trillion → KRW 3.85 Trillion
- Net Profit (Controlling): KRW -601.0 Billion (Loss Continued) → KRW -402.0 Billion (Loss Narrowed) → KRW 991.0 Billion (Turnaround)
- EPS: KRW -7,794 → KRW -5,228 (Loss Narrowed) → KRW 12,812 (Turnaround)
- ROE: -3.0% → -2.0% → 4.8%
- PER / PBR: -30.3x / 0.9x → -53.0x / 1.1x → 21.6x / 1.1x
- EV/EBITDA: 100.2x → 19.9x → 8.6x
- Net Debt: KRW 10.15 Trillion → KRW 10.92 Trillion → KRW 11.31 Trillion
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 4Q25 Preview (Estimated Miss vs. Consensus):
- Consolidated Results: Projected Revenue of KRW 3.7 Trillion and Operating Loss of KRW -396.8 Billion (Loss of KRW -461.6 Billion excluding AMPC), missing consensus (Operating Loss KRW -279.2 Billion). Recognition of ~KRW 100.0 Billion in deferred compensation is expected, but year-end one-off costs limit profitability gains.
- Segment Details: Prismatic EV batteries face continued demand softness from major European OEMs (BMW, Audi). The ESS division commenced commercial NCA shipments from the STLA JV, estimated at ~1GWh in 4Q25. Small batteries narrowed losses on higher smartphone cell shipments to key clients.
- 2026 Outlook (Lack of Clear Catalysts Outside ESS):
- Full-Year Projections: Revenue of KRW 16.0 Trillion and Operating Loss of KRW -619.5 Billion (Loss of ~KRW 1.3 Trillion excluding AMPC).
- EV Headwinds: BMW’s initial adoption of Chinese 46-series cells on its new platform, combined with Samsung SDI’s declining share within BMW, makes meaningful earnings contribution difficult to expect through 2027 and potentially beyond. Audi’s low-cost EV model launches also limit high-nickel prismatic rebounds. Retreating US EV strategies and rising European low-cost battery adoption delay automotive recovery.
- Sole Growth Driver: STLA JV NCA ESS deliveries (started in 4Q25) and the 2H26 North American LFP ESS startup represent the only clear growth drivers.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung SDI as a battery manufacturer experiencing a delayed recovery in its automotive battery business due to OEM adoption of Chinese cylindrical/low-cost cells and sluggish EV demand across the US and Europe, leading to a lowered target price. This perspective highlights the critical role of the ESS business—anchored by commercial STLA JV NCA shipments and the 2H26 North American LFP startup—as the sole growth catalyst buffering persistent EV division headwinds and near-term 4Q consensus misses.
To evaluate the ongoing validity of this investment thesis, key monitoring factors include the quarterly shipment ramp-up of STLA JV NCA ESS products initiated in 4Q25, the on-schedule commercial operation and AMPC generation of the North American LFP ESS line in 2H26, and market share trends alongside EV shipment recovery across major European customers such as BMW and Audi. These operational developments can be tracked through upcoming quarterly financial releases, official company IR updates, and periodic statutory filings.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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