Brokerage : Kyobo Securities
Analyst : Bo-young Choi
Investment Rating : Buy (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 580,000 (Raised)
Core Momentum : Passing an earnings trough in 1Q26 and entering an operational turnaround supported by EV-to-ESS line conversions, LFP supply chain enhancements, and high-power cylindrical cell client expansion across AI data centers and humanoid robotics.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: Buy (Maintained), Target Price KRW 580,000 (Raised)
- Market Data (As of 2026-03-27): Current Price KRW 405,500 (Upside Potential 43.0%), Market Cap KRW 33.02 Trillion, KOSPI 5,438.87pt, KOSDAQ 1,141.51pt, Capital Stock KRW 356.7 Billion, Shares Outstanding Common 80.59 Million / Preferred 1.62 Million, Foreign Ownership (Common) 24.52%
- Key Financial Forecasts (2025.12E → 2026.12E → 2027.12E):
- Revenue: KRW 13.27 Trillion (YoY -20.0%) → KRW 14.50 Trillion (YoY +9.3%) → KRW 17.55 Trillion (YoY +21.0%)
- Operating Profit: KRW -1.998 Trillion (Loss Continued) → KRW 519.0 Billion (Turnaround) → KRW 1.52 Trillion
- Net Profit: KRW -687.0 Billion (Loss Continued) → KRW 368.0 Billion (Turnaround) → KRW 893.0 Billion
- EPS: KRW -8,900 → KRW 4,738 (Turnaround) → KRW 11,515 (YoY +143.0%)
- Operating Margin (OP Margin): -15.1% → 3.6% → 8.6%
- ROE: -3.7% → 2.0% → 4.7%
- PER / PBR: -30.3x / 1.2x → 85.6x / 1.7x → 35.2x / 1.7x
- EV/EBITDA: -511.2x → 19.9x → 14.5x
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 1Q26 Earnings Preview (Slight Consensus Beat): Projected Revenue of KRW 3.49 Trillion (YoY -10%, QoQ -9.4%) and Operating Loss of KRW -268.6 Billion (Loss continued YoY/QoQ, OPM -7.7%), slightly outperforming market consensus (Revenue KRW 3.4 Trillion, Operating Loss KRW -280.9 Billion).
- Small Batteries: Rising power tool demand driven by global infrastructure expansion and construction/remodeling recovery. AI data center power demand expected to support sequential shipment growth from 2Q to 4Q, confirming that the business is moving past the demand trough.
- Mid-to-Large Batteries: European OEM demand weakness persists, prompting ongoing restructuring including line downsizing and conversions at the Hungarian facility.
- ESS Segment: Strategic conversion of selected EV lines to ESS is underway. Benefiting from system-level component integration, ESS yields higher unit selling prices and a more dependable margin structure than EV cells.
- Medium-Term Drivers & Core Catalysts:
- Passing the Earnings Trough: 1Q26 marks the annual low point, with sequential operational improvement and loss narrowing confirming bottoming signals.
- Growth Engines: Rising ESS plant utilization, LFP value chain expansion, and client additions for high-power cylindrical batteries tailored for AI data center infrastructure and humanoid robots.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung SDI as a turnaround battery manufacturer passing its fundamental earnings trough in 1Q26, advancing toward full-year operating profitability in 2026 by proactively executing EV-to-ESS line conversions and expanding high-power cylindrical customer accounts across AI data centers and humanoid robotics. This perspective highlights the dependable profit foundation of ESS (anchored by higher ASPs from module/pack integration and project-based contracts) and new growth exposure in high-power applications, rather than near-term European EV demand headwinds.
To evaluate the ongoing validity of this investment thesis, key monitoring variables include the sequential improvement in quarterly shipments and operating margins following the 1Q26 low point, the progress of line downsizing and ESS utilization recovery at the Hungarian plant, and tangible contract wins for high-power cylindrical cells in AI data centers and humanoid robotics. These operational developments can be verified through upcoming quarterly earnings announcements, official company IR releases, and statutory regulatory filings.
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Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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