Brokerage : Shinhan Securities
Analyst : Ho-chul Lee, Min-yong Eom
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 290,000 (Raised)
Core Momentum : Entering a virtuous cycle where expanding North American new product sales and a 2030 portfolio of 18 biosimilars support proprietary new drug development
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating and Target Price: BUY (Maintained), Target Price raised to KRW 290,000, offering 62.3% upside potential against the base share price of KRW 178,700 (as of July 27).
- Consolidated Financial Summary & Forecasts:
- 2024A: Revenue KRW 3,557.3B, Operating Profit KRW 492.0B, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 422.7B, P/E 101.1x, P/B 2.4x, ROE 2.5%, EV/EBITDA 46.0x, DY 0.4%
- 2025A: Revenue KRW 4,162.5B, Operating Profit KRW 1,168.5B, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 1,029.6B, P/E 40.7x, P/B 2.4x, ROE 5.9%, EV/EBITDA 30.5x, DY 0.4%
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 5,584.3B, Operating Profit KRW 1,883.9B, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 1,742.9B, P/E 24.1x, P/B 2.2x, ROE 9.7%, EV/EBITDA 20.0x, DY 0.5%
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 6,330.9B, Operating Profit KRW 2,362.9B, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 2,098.9B, P/E 19.8x, P/B 2.1x, ROE 10.8%, EV/EBITDA 16.0x, DY 0.5%
- 2028F: Revenue KRW 6,783.2B, Operating Profit KRW 2,574.7B, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 2,328.5B, P/E 17.8x, P/B 1.9x, ROE 11.0%, EV/EBITDA 14.2x, DY 0.6%
- 2Q26 Preliminary Earnings:
- Revenue reached KRW 1,393.7B (+45.0% YoY) and Operating Profit reached KRW 451.8B (+86.3% YoY, OPM 32.4%), slightly exceeding consensus estimates.
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Product Mix and Segment Performance: In 2Q26, global sales of new biosimilar products reached KRW 824.9B (+76.0% YoY), accounting for 65% of total biosimilar sales. Sales of five new products released since 2025 surged +368.5% YoY.
- North American & Global Product Trajectory:
- Omlyclo: Achieved a 21% market share in Europe within 3 quarters; preparing for the 2H addition of a 300mg dosage formulation and a US launch as the first biosimilar (first-mover).
- Yuflyma: Leveraging European market leadership to accelerate US penetration based on Low-WAC (Wholesale Acquisition Cost) strategies.
- Zymfentra: Completing partnership agreements with Pfizer (IV sales partner) in 3Q to facilitate IV-to-SC patient switching. Transitioning to local manufacturing at Branchburg from next year to eliminate tariff risks.
- Portfolio Expansion & New Drug Synergy:
- Target to construct an 18-biosimilar portfolio by 2030 to sustain earnings growth.
- In the new drug segment, Phase 1 topline results for 2 ADC candidates are scheduled for early next year, establishing a virtuous cycle where biosimilar cash flows fund proprietary drug development.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Celltrion as an enterprise elevating its overall earnings profile through accelerating new product penetration in North America, while deploying its biosimilar profitability to fuel innovative new drug development. This perspective places strategic importance on commercial execution across key US product launches and long-term portfolio scaling toward 2030 rather than single-quarter performance.
To determine whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, key tracking points will be whether Omlyclo’s US first-mover launch and Zymfentra’s IV-to-SC prescription conversions drive sustained North American sales growth, and whether the 18-biosimilar roadmap alongside early-stage ADC clinical readouts advance on schedule. These variables can be verified through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR presentations, and regulatory filings.
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