Brokerage : Daishin Securities
Analyst : Hyung-keun Ryu (RA: Ji-won Seo)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 270,000 (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : Supported by steep commodity DRAM and NAND ASP increases alongside maximum capacity advantages, the 2026 full-year operating profit forecast is raised to KRW 201T, with continuous balance sheet improvements driven by cash asset accumulation.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained, 6-Month Target Price upgraded to KRW 270,000 (42% upside potential based on the February 20, 2026 closing price of KRW 190,100)
- Valuation Methodology: Applied a Target P/B of 3.0x (upper end of 12M Forward P/B) to 2026E BPS of KRW 88,869 (weighting 75% of 2026E BPS and 25% of 2027E BPS)
- Key Valuation Multiples (2026F): P/E 3.1x, P/B 2.2x, ROE 31.2%
- Per-Share Metrics (2026F): EPS KRW 23,089, BPS KRW 84,969
- Annual Financial Projections:
- 2024A: Revenue KRW 300.87T, Operating Profit KRW 32.73T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 33.62T
- 2025F: Revenue KRW 333.61T, Operating Profit KRW 43.60T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 44.26T
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 520.56T, Operating Profit KRW 201.20T (upgraded to KRW 201T from KRW 171T in text), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 155.38T
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 566.87T, Operating Profit KRW 215.18T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 162.03T
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Commodity Memory & Record Profitability Projections:
- 2026 commodity DRAM and NAND ASP projected to increase +154% YoY and +89% YoY, respectively
- Maximum capacity advantage enables substantial operating leverage, with memory profitability expected to surpass previous super-cycle peaks (DRAM +70%, NAND +53% in 2017–2018)
- Reclaiming the No. 1 global memory semiconductor operating profit position expected in 1Q26
- HBM & Segment Dynamics:
- HBM4 achieves 11.7Gbps I/O speed; in a segmented market (11.7Gbps vs. 10.6Gbps), speed advantages offer opportunities for ASP premiums
- Margin slowdown concerns in the Set division from rising component costs are fully offset by strong earnings expansion in Semiconductor and Display segments
- Cash Accumulation & Capital Allocation:
- Cash and cash equivalents projected to expand: KRW 125T (end-2025) → KRW 215T (end-2026) → KRW 278T (end-2027)
- Growing cash resources serve as drivers for strengthened shareholder returns, non-memory competitiveness, and AI tailored product portfolios
- Structural changes anticipated, including sales policy adjustments aimed at long-term supply-demand stability
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electronics as a memory-led earnings grower entering an era of over KRW 200T in annual operating profit and accumulating substantial cash assets, powered by steep commodity DRAM/NAND ASP increases and operational leverage stemming from its industry-leading capacity. This perspective places primary emphasis on achieving historic highs in memory profitability, reclaiming the No. 1 quarterly memory operating profit position, and leveraging expanding cash reserves for shareholder returns and strategic business reinforcement, which outweighs component cost headwinds in the downstream Set business.
To verify whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, key verification points include whether realized 2026 commodity DRAM (+154% YoY) and NAND (+89% YoY) ASP gains and full-year operating profit (KRW 201T) meet upgraded forecasts, whether HBM4 I/O speed advantages translate into realized ASP premiums, and whether expanding year-end cash balances lead to concrete shareholder return programs and investments in non-memory and AI portfolios. These metrics can be tracked through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR presentations, regulatory filings, and periodic financial reports.
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