Brokerage : Mirae Asset Securities
Analyst : Younggun Kim
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 550,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Strong upward revisions in earnings driven by sharp ASP increases in Mobile DRAM and NAND, supported by downside valuation protection via substantial 50% FCF-based shareholder returns.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained with a Target Price of KRW 550,000 (86.1% upside potential from June 8, 2026 closing price of KRW 295,500)
- Valuation Multiples:
- The Target Price implies a 2026F P/B of 4.9x and P/E of 11.3x, sitting below the industry peer averages of 7.6x and 12.4x, respectively
- Current share price trading multiples stand at 2026F P/E of 6.1x and P/B of 2.5x
- Key Financial Metrics & Forecasts (2024 ~ 2028F):
- 2024: Revenue KRW 300.87T, OP KRW 32.73T, Net Profit KRW 33.62T, EPS KRW 4,950, ROE 9.0%, P/E 10.7x, P/B 0.9x, Div. Yield 2.7%
- 2025: Revenue KRW 333.61T, OP KRW 43.60T, Net Profit KRW 44.26T, EPS KRW 6,564, ROE 10.8%, P/E 18.3x, P/B 1.9x, Div. Yield 1.4%
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 732.39T, OP KRW 394.98T (vs. consensus KRW 355.42T), Net Profit KRW 325.00T, EPS KRW 48,722, ROE 55.1%, P/E 6.1x, P/B 2.5x, Div. Yield 4.0%
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 939.02T, OP KRW 528.83T, Net Profit KRW 450.28T, EPS KRW 67,725, ROE 47.9%, P/E 4.4x, P/B 1.7x, Div. Yield 5.6%
- 2028F: Revenue KRW 1,012.97T, OP KRW 543.37T, Net Profit KRW 489.57T, EPS KRW 73,635, ROE 37.2%, P/E 4.0x, P/B 1.3x, Div. Yield 5.9%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Mobile DRAM & NAND Pricing Momentum:
- Accelerated contract price hikes in 2Q26 Mobile DRAM driven by growing AI-driven demand such as SOCAMM and aggressive pricing policies in the Chinese smartphone segment
- 2Q26 price outlook: LPDDR5X (16GB) QoQ +81%, UFS (512GB) QoQ +80%, and Server DRAM QoQ +50~55%
- Big tech preemption of high-capacity QLC enterprise SSD capacity is restricting consumer NAND supply, compelling downstream set makers to accept elevated prices
- Conventional memory price spikes exert upward pricing pressure on HBM4, as the opportunity cost of sacrificing conventional capacity increases
- Earnings Revisions:
- DRAM ASP Growth Forecasts: 2Q26F revised to +50% (from +41%), 2026F revised to +279% (from +260%)
- NAND ASP Growth Forecasts: 2Q26F revised to +60% (from +45%), 2026F revised to +250% (from +235%)
- Operating Profit Forecasts: 2Q26F OP revised to KRW 98T (from KRW 89T), 2026F OP revised to KRW 395T (from KRW 371T)
- Shareholder Return Policy: Under the 2024~2026 50% FCF return framework, estimated dividend yields of 4.0~6.9% for common shares and 6.1~10.6% for preferred shares provide solid downside share price support.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electronics as a market leader positioned to capitalize on broad-based ASP surges across mobile DRAM and enterprise-driven NAND, rather than a standard commodity producer. This perspective places greater significance on the structural spillover of memory price strength into enhanced pricing power for next-generation products like HBM4, combined with downside valuation protection from strong FCF-backed shareholder return policies.
To assess whether this investment thesis unfolds as anticipated, key verification checkpoints include the continuation of quarterly ASP increases across Mobile DRAM and NAND lines, actual margin realization from consumer and enterprise supply constraints, and the execution details of the 50% FCF shareholder return plan. These indicators can be tracked through subsequent quarterly earnings reports, official IR presentations, and regulatory disclosures on DART/KRX.
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