Brokerage : Hanwha Investment & Securities
Analyst : Junyoung Park (Analyst), Nau Kim (RA)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 300,000 (Raised)
Core Momentum : Severe memory undersupply driving sharp ASP surges alongside the commercial ramp-up of HBM4 is leading to substantial upward revisions in full-year earnings forecasts.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
Key Investment & Valuation Metrics
- Base Stock Price (2026-04-07): KRW 196,500
- Target Price: KRW 300,000 (Raised, +52.7% upside potential)
- Rating: BUY Maintained (Selected as Top Pick among large-cap semiconductor stocks)
- Valuation Methodology: Applied target P/B of 3.0x (20% discount to Micron 2026F P/B) to 2026F BPS of KRW 100,161
- Market Cap: KRW 1,163.21 Trillion (5,919.64 million shares outstanding, 48.4% foreign ownership)
Annual Financial Outlook & Forecasts (K-IFRS Consolidated)
- 2024(A): Revenue KRW 300.87T, Operating Profit KRW 32.73T, EBITDA KRW 75.36T, Net Profit KRW 33.62T, EPS KRW 5,433, Net Debt -KRW 93.29T (Net Cash KRW 93.29T), P/E 36.2x, P/B 3.4x, EV/EBITDA 15.6x, Dividend Yield 0.7%, ROE 9.0%
- 2025(A): Revenue KRW 333.61T, Operating Profit KRW 43.60T, EBITDA KRW 90.21T, Net Profit KRW 44.20T, EPS KRW 7,278, Net Debt -KRW 105.39T (Net Cash KRW 105.39T), P/E 27.0x, P/B 3.1x, EV/EBITDA 12.9x, Dividend Yield 0.8%, ROE 10.9%
- 2026(E): Revenue KRW 659.91T, Operating Profit KRW 336.88T, EBITDA KRW 388.36T, Net Profit KRW 264.71T, EPS KRW 44,735, Net Debt -KRW 287.70T (Net Cash KRW 287.70T), P/E 4.4x, P/B 2.0x, EV/EBITDA 2.5x, Dividend Yield 0.8%, ROE 48.3%
- 2027(E): Revenue KRW 805.01T, Operating Profit KRW 463.31T, EBITDA KRW 523.17T, Net Profit KRW 362.18T, EPS KRW 61,292, Net Debt -KRW 581.78T (Net Cash KRW 581.78T), P/E 3.2x, P/B 1.3x, EV/EBITDA 1.3x, Dividend Yield 0.8%, ROE 42.6%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
1Q26 Results Summary & Full-Year Revisions
- 1Q26 Performance: Revenue reached KRW 133T (+41.8% QoQ, +12% vs. consensus), and Operating Profit recorded KRW 57.2T (+185.2% QoQ, +49% vs. consensus).
- Annual Operating Profit Outlook: Revised upward by 81% from KRW 186T to KRW 337T.
Severe Memory Shortage & Pricing Dynamics
- DRAM ASP: Estimated to have surged +90% QoQ to approximately $1.18/Gb in 1Q26.
- NAND ASP: Estimated to have increased +80% QoQ to approximately $0.16/GB in 1Q26.
- Market Dynamics: With robust demand across AI and standard server applications and limited options for meaningful supply expansion, memory undersupply conditions are expected to remain pronounced and persistent.
HBM4 Technological Competitiveness
- Commercial Shipment Ramp: Initial HBM4 shipments contributed to 1Q26 earnings, accompanied by rising demand from key North American customers.
- Product Capabilities: Production of HBM4 operating at speeds up to 13Gbps is positioning the company as a viable solution to address customer requirements, with meaningful advances expected in the product segment.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electronics as a top semiconductor beneficiary whose earnings power is expanding substantially amid a worsening memory undersupply environment. Beyond near-term earnings beats, the overarching perspective emphasizes the sustained upward pricing momentum in DRAM and NAND under structural supply constraints, alongside strengthening market competitiveness by addressing customer requirements with high-speed (up to 13Gbps) HBM4 production.
To verify the ongoing validity of this investment thesis, key metrics to track include whether DRAM and NAND ASP upward trends persist across remaining quarters, and whether HBM4 supply to major North American customers continues to expand and contribute to earnings. These developments can be verified through upcoming quarterly earnings conference calls, official IR releases, regulatory filings on DART/KRX, and periodic financial reports.
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