Brokerage : Mirae Asset Securities
Analyst : Young-gun Kim
Investment Rating : Buy (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 300,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Earnings leverage driven by steep DRAM and NAND ASP gains relative to limited bit growth is materializing alongside structural differentiation as a full-stack manufacturer integrating advanced foundry, memory, and packaging.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: Buy maintained, Target Price maintained at KRW 300,000 (58.2% upside potential based on the April 1, 2026 closing price of KRW 189,600)
- Key Valuation Multiples (2026F): P/E 5.5x, P/B 1.9x (12M Forward P/B 1.8x), ROE 42.9%, Dividend Yield 0.9% (~5% yield referenced in text based on 2026F DPS estimate of KRW 8,610)
- Per-Share Metrics (2026F): EPS KRW 34,432 (YoY +424.6%)
- Annual Financial Projections:
- 2024: Revenue KRW 300.87T, Operating Profit KRW 32.73T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 33.62T
- 2025: Revenue KRW 333.61T, Operating Profit KRW 43.60T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 44.26T
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 601.22T, Operating Profit KRW 251.02T (exceeding consensus of KRW 203.11T, YoY +475.7%, OPM 41.8%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 231.92T
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 758.73T, Operating Profit KRW 360.85T (OPM 47.6%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 339.21T
- 2028F: Revenue KRW 846.87T, Operating Profit KRW 409.86T (OPM 48.4%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 394.61T
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 1Q26 Earnings Preview:
- Projected Revenue of KRW 124T (+32.2% QoQ) and Operating Profit of KRW 41.3T (+105.9% QoQ), beating market consensus (Operating Profit KRW 37T)
- Operating Profit by Segment: DS KRW 37.2T (OPM 55.3%), DX KRW 3.5T (OPM 6.3%), SDC KRW 0.2T, Harman KRW 0.3T
- Memory ASP & Bit Growth: DRAM B/G +4% and ASP +62% QoQ (estimated OPM 67%); NAND B/G +8% and ASP +53% QoQ (estimated OPM 52%), reflecting steep pricing gains over volume growth
- Foundry/LSI: Operating loss of KRW 1.0T expected due to pre-ramp utilization lag despite increasing order backlogs
- 2Q26 Outlook:
- 2Q26 Operating Profit projected at KRW 56.8T (+37.4% QoQ), sustaining strong sequential profit growth
- Advanced Foundry Orders & Full-Stack Synergy:
- NVIDIA’s Groq LPU mass production officially announced at Samsung’s 4nm foundry (shipments scheduled from 3Q), marking the second major Big Tech win after Tesla’s AI6 chip (KRW 23T)
- HBM4 specifications unveiled using a 4nm FinFET base die (pin speeds up to 13Gb/s, Fully-MBIST integration), realizing synergies between memory and foundry
- Demonstration of 4F2 DRAM prototype using HCB-based W2W bonding highlights structural differentiation as a full-stack manufacturer integrating memory and advanced packaging
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electronics not merely as a near-term memory earnings rebound story, but as an integrated semiconductor enterprise entering a structural transition, underscored by 4nm advanced foundry contracts (Tesla, NVIDIA/Groq) and full-stack capabilities across memory, foundry base dies, and advanced packaging. This perspective places primary significance on substantial operating leverage driven by memory ASP increases and the structural scarcity value of the full-stack business model, which outweighs near-term foundry operating losses prior to full production ramp-up.
To verify whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, key verification points include whether realized DRAM and NAND ASP gains and operating margins in 1Q and 2Q meet expectations, whether commercial mass production and shipment of NVIDIA’s Groq LPU commence as scheduled in 3Q, and whether full-stack technical execution progresses through the 4nm base die HBM4 and the 4F2 DRAM prototype. These developments can be tracked through upcoming quarterly earnings announcements, official IR materials, regulatory filings, and periodic financial reports.
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