Brokerage : Kiwoom Securities
Analyst : Yu-ak Park
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 260,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Near-term earnings are expected to remain strong driven by server DRAM/eSSD price hikes and surging 2Q HBM4 shipments, but market focus is anticipated to gradually shift toward down-cycle risks given elevated profitability levels.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained, Sector Top Pick maintained, Target Price maintained at KRW 260,000 (Current price as of April 7, 2026: KRW 196,500)
- Key Valuation Multiples (2026F): P/E 3.4x, P/B 1.3x, ROE 46.4%, EV/EBITDA 3.0x, Dividend Yield (25E) 1.4%
- Per-Share Metrics (2026F): EPS KRW 35,999 (YoY +448.5%), BPS (25E) KRW 62,995
- Annual Financial Projections:
- 2023: Revenue KRW 258.94T, Operating Profit KRW 6.57T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 14.47T
- 2024: Revenue KRW 300.87T, Operating Profit KRW 32.73T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 33.62T
- 2025F: Revenue KRW 333.61T, Operating Profit KRW 43.60T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 44.26T
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 628.59T, Operating Profit KRW 318.90T (OPM 50.7%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 242.47T
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 1Q26 Preliminary Results Breakdown:
- Revenue reached KRW 133T (+42% QoQ) and Operating Profit KRW 57T (+185% QoQ), significantly beating consensus (Operating Profit KRW 44T)
- Key Drivers: Server DRAM and eSSD price increases exceeded expectations, profitability in Foundry/S.LSI improved faster than expected, and late-quarter KRW/USD FX strength provided a tailwind
- 1Q26 Operating Profit by Segment: DS KRW 53.9T (+228% QoQ), SDC KRW 0.5T (-74% QoQ), DX (MX/NW) KRW 2.1T (+8% QoQ), DX (VD/DA) KRW 0.1T (turned profitable)
- 2Q26 Outlook:
- Revenue projected at KRW 155T (+16% QoQ) and Operating Profit at KRW 82T (+43% QoQ), well above consensus (Revenue KRW 140T, Operating Profit KRW 62T)
- HBM4 & Memory Catalysts: Total HBM shipments expected to jump +331% YoY on surging sales to NVIDIA, with favorable market pricing; server DRAM and NAND ASP increases continue
- Foundry/S.LSI: Earnings expected to improve via increasing shipments of HBM4 base dies
- 2Q26 Operating Profit by Segment: DS KRW 80.0T (+48% QoQ), SDC KRW 0.4T (-21% QoQ), DX (MX/NW) KRW 0.8T (-65% QoQ), DX (VD/DA) KRW 0.03T (-78% QoQ)
- Market Focus & Cycle Risks:
- Near-term catalysts remain intact via rising market share in HBM4 and eSSD alongside Foundry margin improvement
- Due to highly elevated profitability levels, market attention is expected to increasingly focus on the timing of a down-cycle entry and the potential scale of margin contraction
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electronics as a top-performing semiconductor maker sustaining strong earnings momentum toward a KRW 82T quarterly operating profit run-rate, driven by steep server DRAM/eSSD ASP hikes and the expansion of HBM4 shipments. While recognizing near-term catalysts such as market share gains in HBM4 and operational improvements in Foundry, this perspective places balanced emphasis on shifting market sentiment, where record-level profitability naturally directs attention toward down-cycle risks and eventual margin deceleration.
To verify whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, key verification points include whether 2Q HBM4 shipments and sales expansion to NVIDIA track projections, whether server DRAM and NAND pricing strength persists, and whether base die shipments for HBM4 translate into sustained earnings recovery for the Foundry/S.LSI division. These developments can be monitored through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR presentations, regulatory filings, and periodic financial statements.
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