Brokerage : Kyobo Securities
Analyst : Bo-young Choi
Investment Rating : Buy (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 220,000 (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : Driven by broad demand strength across both AI-dedicated and commodity memory, combined with a strategy to maximize profitability based on supply control via proactive Capex and multi-year supply contracts amid ongoing supply constraints, the target price is raised to KRW 220,000.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: Buy maintained, Target Price upgraded to KRW 220,000 (Current price as of January 29, 2026: KRW 160,700)
- Key Valuation Multiples (2026.12E): P/E 8.0x, P/B 2.0x, ROE 25.3%, EV/EBITDA 4.9x, PCR 3.3x
- Per-Share Metrics (2026.12E): EPS KRW 20,410 (YoY +182.2%)
- Annual Financial Projections:
- 2024.12: Revenue KRW 300.87T, Operating Profit KRW 32.73T, Net Profit KRW 34.45T
- 2025.12E: Revenue KRW 333.57T, Operating Profit KRW 43.58T, Net Profit KRW 45.06T
- 2026.12E: Revenue KRW 468.29T (YoY +40.4%), Operating Profit KRW 155.37T (OP Margin 33.2%), Net Profit KRW 124.99T
- 2027.12E: Revenue KRW 478.74T (YoY +2.2%), Operating Profit KRW 169.57T (OP Margin 35.4%), Net Profit KRW 139.62T
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 4Q25 Earnings Review (Consensus Beat):
- Preliminary Revenue of KRW 93.8T (+24% YoY, +9% QoQ) and Operating Profit of KRW 20.1T (+209% YoY, +161% QoQ), beating consensus (Revenue KRW 88.7T, Operating Profit KRW 16.5T)
- AI Hyperscaler demand expansion and inference workload acceleration drove concurrent demand growth across both AI-specific and conventional commodity memory
- Segment Details: DRAM bit growth +2%, ASP +48%, Operating Profit KRW 15.4T (OPM +59%) / NAND bit growth -13%, ASP +25%, Operating Profit KRW 2.4T (OPM +26%)
- 1Q26 Earnings Outlook:
- Revenue projected at KRW 108.8T (+38% YoY, +16% QoQ) and Operating Profit at KRW 31.7T (+43% YoY, +38% QoQ)
- DRAM bit growth -2%, ASP +43%, Operating Profit KRW 25.4T (OPM +70%) / NAND bit growth -2%, ASP +42%, Operating Profit KRW 2.6T (OPM +19%)
- 2026 Strategic Drivers & Industry Trajectory:
- Entry into an AI server-led memory pricing and margin expansion cycle reconfirmed
- Securing long-term supply leadership through concurrent expansion of HBM3E capacity and transition toward HBM4/4E
- Supply constraints projected to persist through 2026; operations centered on proactive Capex and multi-year supply agreements focus on supply-control-driven profit maximization and cycle volatility hedging
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electronics as a market-leading memory producer capitalizing on expanding demand across both AI and conventional memory tiers amid tight industry supply, utilizing proactive Capex and multi-year supply contracts to maximize margins based on disciplined supply control and achieve KRW 155T in 2026 full-year operating profit. This perspective places primary emphasis on steep ASP gains in DRAM and NAND fueled by AI server workloads, alongside long-term supply leadership established through HBM3E capacity expansion and HBM4/4E migration, rather than near-term volume shipment constraints.
To verify whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, key verification points include whether realized 1Q DRAM (+43% QoQ) and NAND (+42% QoQ) ASP growth and operating profit (KRW 31.7T) meet forecasts, whether HBM3E capacity expansion and HBM4/4E transitions proceed as scheduled, and whether operations centered on proactive Capex and multi-year contracts effectively sustain supply-control-driven profitability. These developments can be tracked through upcoming quarterly earnings announcements, official IR materials, regulatory filings, and periodic financial reports.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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