Brokerage : Kiwoom Securities
Analyst : Hangyeol Lee
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 144,000 (Lowered)
Core Momentum : Earnings turnaround driven by a higher mix of high-margin commercial vessels and early offshore project recognition, with 2H focus turning to broader LNGC contracting and global naval pipeline expansion
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY Maintained, Target Price lowered to KRW 144,000 based on a Target P/E of 23x (applying a reduced 15% premium, down from 25%, to historical upcycle peak P/E of 20x) on 2028F EPS of KRW 6,259 (Current Price: KRW 76,800 as of July 14, 2026)
- 2Q26 Earnings Outlook: Projected Revenue of KRW 4.81 trillion (+45.9% YoY) and Operating Profit of KRW 547.4 billion (+47.3% YoY, OPM 11.4%), expected to beat market consensus.
- Key Forecast Financials (2025 → 2026F → 2027F):
- Revenue: KRW 12.78 trillion → KRW 15.40 trillion → KRW 15.59 trillion
- Operating Profit: KRW 1.17 trillion → KRW 1.99 trillion → KRW 2.39 trillion
- EBITDA: KRW 1.40 trillion → KRW 2.31 trillion → KRW 2.74 trillion
- Net Profit (Controlling): KRW 1.25 trillion → KRW 1.54 trillion → KRW 1.74 trillion
- EPS: KRW 4,066 → KRW 5,025 (+23.6% YoY) → KRW 5,676 (+12.9% YoY)
- BPS (2026E): KRW 25,220
- PER: 27.9x → 15.7x → 13.9x
- PBR: 5.64x → 3.12x → 2.55x
- ROE: 22.6% → 22.2% → 20.2%
- Net Debt-to-Equity Ratio: 80.8% → 49.9% → 34.1%
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q26 Segmental Outlook: The merchant shipbuilding division is expected to deliver solid results supported by high-price order mix expansion, productivity enhancements, and favorable foreign exchange rates. The offshore (energy plant) division is anticipated to narrow operating losses as fixed-cost burdens ease due to the early revenue recognition of ~KRW 1.5 trillion from the P79 project. The special ship division is expected to remain in operating losses due to fixed-cost burdens from preemptive capex despite top-line growth.
- 2H Merchant & Offshore Order Outlook: Cumulative 1H26 merchant orders stood at 21 vessels (6 LNGCs, 12 VLCCs, 3 VLACs) valued at USD 3.4 billion (+8.9% YoY). Additional orders are required in 2H relative to annual shipyard capacity and last year’s order performance (~USD 9.5 billion), with order momentum expected to accelerate via broad-based LNGC contracting and supply chain-driven tanker demand. In offshore, the company targets 1–2 contract wins within the year, including the Namibian Venus FPSO in Africa and a South American project.
- Naval Pipeline & US Defense Opportunities: Despite the outcome in the Canadian CPSP submarine bid, overseas pipeline opportunities remain in play across Thai frigates and Estonian OPVs. Securing the domestic KDDX contract is expected to ease fixed overhead starting in 2027. While policy coordination for US shipbuilding revival requires time, medium-to-long-term growth visibility from US naval defense programs remains intact.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Hanwha Ocean as a shipbuilder sustaining earnings growth through commercial vessel mix improvements and early offshore revenue recognition, while positioning for medium-to-long-term expansion centered on US naval programs beyond short-term defense tender headwinds. This perspective incorporates a calibrated valuation multiple to account for the timeline of US shipbuilding policy coordination, while maintaining focus on 2H commercial order recovery and the strategic growth potential of naval defense contracts.
To evaluate whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, key verification points include new order intake in LNGCs and tankers in 2H, contract finalizations for 1–2 offshore units such as the Namibian Venus FPSO, and tangible milestones in defense tenders (including Thai frigates, KDDX, and US naval partnership developments). These factors can be monitored through future quarterly earnings releases, official IR materials, regulatory filings, and periodic financial reports.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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