Brokerage : Hana Securities
Analyst : Seona Kim (RA: Heekyung Lee)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 580,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Execution of a USD 365 Million ALT-B4 out-licensing deal validates sustained platform demand, while surging Keytruda Qlex sales drive upward revisions to medium-term revenue forecasts.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained) / Target Price (12M) KRW 580,000 (Maintained) (Closing price as of August 5, 2026: KRW 277,000)
- Market Data: KOSDAQ Index 799.59pt / Market Cap KRW 14.84 Trillion (Market Cap Weight 3.37%) / Shares Outstanding 69,655,100 / Foreign Ownership 14.84% / 52-Week High KRW 430,124, Low KRW 206,213 / Major Shareholders: Soonjae Park and 4 affiliates 20.33%, Inwoo Hyung and 2 affiliates 5.08%
- Annual Financial Forecast (Hana Securities Estimates):
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 401.1 Billion (+85.8% YoY), Operating Profit KRW 257.3 Billion (+140.7% YoY, OPM 64.1%), Pre-tax Profit KRW 317.5 Billion, Net Profit KRW 272.0 Billion, EPS KRW 3,877 (+91.36% YoY), BPS KRW 10,051, PER 71.45x, PBR 27.56x, ROE 47.33%, EV/EBITDA 53.68x, DPS KRW 285
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 772.3 Billion (+92.5% YoY), Operating Profit KRW 558.8 Billion (+117.2% YoY, OPM 72.4%), Pre-tax Profit KRW 593.1 Billion, Net Profit KRW 508.2 Billion, EPS KRW 7,241 (+86.77% YoY), BPS KRW 17,009, PER 38.25x, PBR 16.29x, ROE 53.59%, EV/EBITDA 24.58x, DPS KRW 285
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- New ALT-B4 Out-Licensing Agreement & Platform Demand:
- On August 5, signed an out-licensing agreement for ALT-B4 valued at USD 365 Million (~KRW 521.9 Billion, excluding commercial royalties) including upfront and milestone payments, with upfronts estimated at ~USD 20 Million (~KRW 28.6 Billion).
- The deal size exceeds prior deal averages of USD 285M–300M per asset, demonstrating sustained demand for ALT-B4 despite market concerns regarding Halozyme’s Enhanze biosimilars.
- Target Candidate Analysis & Potential Impact:
- Hana Securities estimates the potential licensed asset could be a major therapy in the immunology/psoriasis space, highlighting Eli Lilly’s Taltz (ixekizumab, 2025 revenue USD 3.6 Billion) or UCB’s Bimzelx (bimekizumab, 2025 revenue USD 2.5 Billion) as attractive partner candidates.
- Based on the total contract value, the analyst expects the potential commercial impact to be comparable to a blockbuster asset with over USD 5 Billion in annual sales (such as Enhertu).
- Keytruda Qlex Rapid Commercial Adoption:
- As of June 2026, Qlex (SC) reached an 8.9% prescription conversion rate (5.5% of total Keytruda sales) in the US market, outperforming the full-year target projection of 6%–7%.
- Q2 Qlex sales surged to USD 463 Million (+262% QoQ), triggering estimated first commercial sales milestone receipts.
- With H1 cumulative revenue reaching USD 590 Million, adoption trajectory remains well on track to exceed MSD’s target conversion of >30% by 2027 and annual Qlex sales of USD 10 Billion by 2029.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Alteogen as a globally validated drug delivery platform company that has effectively dispelled Enhanze biosimilar concerns by executing a higher-value ALT-B4 licensing agreement (USD 365 Million), while entering an active commercial milestone recognition cycle driven by Merck’s rapid Keytruda Qlex rollout. The overarching perspective prioritizes the expanding pipeline potential across major immunology candidates and the faster-than-expected SC conversion rate in the US market over transient competitor-related noise.
To verify whether this investment thesis progresses as expected, investors should primarily monitor the actual cash receipt of the upfront payment (~USD 20 Million) and clinical development progress from the new USD 365 Million licensing partner, quarterly tracking of Keytruda Qlex prescription conversion rates via MSD and industry data, and the subsequent cadence of recurring commercial milestone inflows toward the 2027 conversion target of 30%. These developments can be verified through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official company IR presentations, regulatory filings on DART/KRX, and MSD’s quarterly disclosures.
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