Brokerage : Mirae Asset Securities
Analyst : Chul-joong Kim, Min-hui Kang
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 500,000 (Raised)
Core Momentum : Estimated finalization of large-scale prismatic LFP ESS supply for global leader Customer T, unlocking investment capacity via SDC asset utilization for financing, and narrowing EV operating losses through line restructuring.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY (Maintained), Target Price KRW 500,000 (Raised from KRW 450,000, Sector Top Pick)
- SOTP Valuation Breakdown: Small Batteries KRW 3.3 Trillion, EV KRW 3.5 Trillion, ESS KRW 31.0 Trillion (Target EV/EBITDA multiple raised from 15x to 20x), Electronic Materials KRW 3.0 Trillion, SDC Stake Value KRW 10.0 Trillion
- Market Data (As of 2026-02-02): Current Price KRW 356,000 (Upside Potential 40.4%), Market Cap KRW 28.69 Trillion, KOSPI 4,949.67pt, Shares Outstanding 81.0 Million, Foreign Ownership 23.7%
- Key Financial Forecasts (2025F → 2026F → 2027F):
- Revenue: KRW 13.27 Trillion → KRW 14.90 Trillion → KRW 18.23 Trillion
- Operating Profit: KRW -1.72 Trillion (Loss Continued) → KRW -505.0 Billion (Loss Narrowed) → KRW 1.24 Trillion (Turnaround)
- Net Profit (Controlling): KRW -647.0 Billion → KRW -40.0 Billion (Loss Narrowed) → KRW 2.32 Trillion (Turnaround)
- EPS: KRW -8,279 → KRW -483 → KRW 28,175 (Turnaround)
- Operating Margin (OPM): -13.0% → -3.4% → 6.8%
- ROE: -3.1% → -0.2% → 10.2%
- PER / PBR: -x / 1.0x → -x / 1.3x → 12.6x / 1.2x
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Commencing Business with Global Leader Customer T (Estimated):
- Order Volume & Timeline: The North American ESS contract with Customer T (under discussion since the OBBBA passage last July) is estimated to have been finalized, projected at over 10GWh annually and 30GWh+ over 3 years in prismatic LFP cells. Given North American fab timelines, commercial shipments are expected to be faster than domestic peers.
- Pipeline Expansion: Potential for additional order wins for Customer T’s new Texas lines exists, alongside long-term business expansion into next-generation platforms such as humanoid robotics. This serves as a key catalyst narrowing valuation discounts relative to global peers.
- EV Loss Narrowing & Hungarian Line Normalization:
- Line Reallocations: Fixed-cost dilution underway via North American EV line conversions to ESS, idle line shutdowns in Hungary, and dedicated conversions to LFP and 4680 lines.
- Utilization Trajectory: Driven by restructuring and European demand stabilization, Hungarian plant utilization is projected to climb from 40% in 4Q25 to 55% in 1Q26 and 70% in 2Q26.
- Capital Advantage via SDC Stake Utilization:
- Re-affirming plans regarding the utilization of the Samsung Display (SDC) stake for financing during the earnings call provides solid balance-sheet flexibility, cash flow support, and medium-term investment advantages over competitors.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung SDI as a turnaround battery manufacturer passing its 1Q26 operational low, positioned to narrow its valuation discount relative to global peers through estimated large-scale prismatic LFP ESS contract finalization with global leader Customer T and operational normalization at its Hungarian facilities (utilization rising to 70%). This perspective emphasizes that commencing supply to the industry’s top customer and securing strategic investment capital via the utilization of the SDC stake for financing outweigh near-term quarterly operating losses.
To evaluate the ongoing validity of this investment thesis, key monitoring factors include the actual contract finalization and commercial delivery execution of prismatic LFP ESS batteries for Customer T, the recovery of Hungarian plant utilization toward 70% in 2Q26, and concrete execution steps regarding the utilization of the Samsung Display (SDC) stake for financing. These operational milestones can be verified through upcoming quarterly earnings announcements, official company IR releases, and statutory regulatory filings.
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