Brokerage : Hana Securities
Analyst : Hyun-soo Kim, Ji-won Hong (RA)
Investment Rating : BUY (Upgraded)
Target Price : KRW 420,000 (Raised)
Core Momentum : Following substantial loss narrowing in 4Q25, a stepwise reduction in quarterly operating losses supported by rising ESS AMPC credits and robust cylindrical BBU shipments underpins a projected 4Q26 profit turnaround.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY (Upgraded), Target Price KRW 420,000 (Raised by applying 24x, the average 24M Fwd P/E during the 2021–2023 earnings growth cycle)
- Market Data (As of 2026-02-02): Current Price KRW 356,000, Market Cap KRW 28.69 Trillion, KOSPI 4,949.67pt, Shares Outstanding 80,585.5 Thousand, Foreign Ownership 23.66%
- Key Financial Forecasts (2025F → 2026F):
- Revenue: KRW 13.27 Trillion → KRW 15.56 Trillion
- Operating Profit: KRW -1.72 Trillion (Loss Continued) → KRW -737.4 Billion (Loss Narrowed)
- Pre-tax Profit: KRW -1.36 Trillion → KRW -527.3 Billion (Loss Narrowed)
- Net Profit: KRW -649.5 Billion → KRW -332.8 Billion (Loss Narrowed)
- EPS: KRW -8,326 → KRW -4,049 (Loss Narrowed)
- ROE: -3.17% → -1.58%
- PER / PBR: -32.37x / 1.03x → -87.92x / 1.38x
- EV/EBITDA: 457.75x → 49.51x
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 4Q25 Earnings Review (Client Compensation & Margin Recovery): Consolidated Revenue of KRW 3.9 Trillion (YoY +3%, QoQ +26%) and Operating Loss of KRW -299.2 Billion (Loss continued YoY/QoQ), narrowing quarterly losses by KRW 292.0 Billion.
- Mid-to-Large EV: Revenue surged over +40% QoQ driven by client compensation for lower volume commitments.
- ESS: Revenue jumped over +30% QoQ as the North American NCA ESS line commenced operations. Battery division OPM improved significantly to -9.3% (QoQ +13.0%p).
- Electronic Materials: Revenue grew +2% QoQ led by OLED materials, maintaining solid profitability (OPM 16.6%, QoQ -0.2%p).
- 1Q26 Outlook & Stepwise Loss Reduction Path:
- 1Q26 Outlook: Projected Revenue of KRW 3.5 Trillion (YoY +9%, QoQ -10%) and Operating Loss of KRW -316.8 Billion (Loss continued YoY/QoQ). Mid-to-large EV revenue is forecast to drop ~20% QoQ, but fast-growing cylindrical ESS BBU shipments and rising ESS AMPC credits will support company-wide performance.
- Quarterly Loss Trajectory: Operating losses are narrowing from historical peaks of KRW ~600.0 Billion (1Q–3Q25) to KRW ~300.0 Billion (4Q25/1Q26) and KRW ~200.0 Billion (2Q–3Q26), leading toward an expected operating profit turnaround in 4Q26.
- Investment Strategy & Valuation: Downside risk remains limited given the anticipated QoQ revenue rebound in 2Q26; a buy-on-dips approach is recommended to maximize expected returns.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst upgraded the investment rating to BUY, viewing Samsung SDI as a turnaround battery manufacturer exiting extreme quarterly losses (previously up to KRW 600 Billion) and advancing along a clear loss-narrowing trajectory toward a 4Q26 operating profit inflection, anchored by North American ESS AMPC growth and expanding cylindrical BBU sales. This perspective highlights the initiation of North American NCA ESS lines, the expected QoQ top-line rebound starting in 2Q, and medium-term multiple re-rating based on historical growth-period averages (24x P/E), rather than near-term 1Q EV seasonality.
To assess the continuing validity of this investment thesis, key monitoring factors include the realization of a QoQ revenue rebound in 2Q26, the stepwise reduction of quarterly operating losses toward the KRW 200 Billion range leading into a 4Q26 turnaround, and the continued scaling of quarterly AMPC credits from the North American NCA ESS line. These operational milestones can be verified through upcoming quarterly earnings announcements, official company IR updates, and statutory regulatory filings.
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