Market: KOSPI (005490)
Brokerage : Hana Securities
Analyst : Sung-bong Park, Seung-gyu Kim (RA)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : 740,000 KRW (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Product spread expansion from steel ASP hikes, the entry into lithium profitability, and plans to optimize listed subsidiary stakes for strategic investments and share buyback/cancellation are expected to drive share price momentum.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Rating & Target Price: Maintained BUY rating with a 12-month target price of 740,000 KRW (maintained), offering strong upside potential compared to the base share price of 300,500 KRW.
- Key Valuation Multiples:
- 2026F: P/E 8.12x, P/B 0.40x, EV/EBITDA 6.24x, ROE 5.18%, DPS 10,000 KRW, BPS 745,775 KRW
- 2027F: P/E 8.26x, P/B 0.39x, EV/EBITDA 5.55x, ROE 4.89%, DPS 10,000 KRW, BPS 772,607 KRW
- Annual Financial Forecasts:
- 2026F: Revenue of 75.48T KRW, Operating Profit of 3.16T KRW, Pre-tax Profit of 2.99T KRW, Controlling Net Profit of 2.95T KRW
- 2027F: Revenue of 75.23T KRW, Operating Profit of 3.64T KRW, Pre-tax Profit of 2.93T KRW, Controlling Net Profit of 2.88T KRW
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 2Q26 Earnings Review:
- Consolidated revenue reached 19.3T KRW (+9.7% YoY, +7.7% QoQ) and operating profit stood at 818.7B KRW (+34.8% YoY, +15.8% QoQ), beating market consensus of 729.9B KRW.
- Steel: Domestic-focused sales strategy drove POSCO steel volume to 8.36M tons (+2.3% YoY, +0.9% QoQ). Carbon steel ASP increase (+42,000 KRW/ton) outpaced blast furnace raw material cost inflation (+26,000 KRW/ton), expanding spreads. Overseas steel subsidiaries maintained stable profits QoQ.
- Non-Steel: POSCO International delivered record quarterly operating profit, while POSCO E&C posted a minor QoQ profit decline.
- Lithium: POSCO Argentina achieved its first-ever quarterly profit, and POSCO Pilbara Lithium Solution significantly narrowed its operating loss.
- 3Q26 Earnings Outlook:
- Consolidated operating profit is projected at 728.4B KRW (+14.0% YoY, -11.0% QoQ).
- POSCO steel sales volume is expected to reach 8.49M tons (+3.1% YoY, +1.6% QoQ). Price hikes across key end-markets (including automotive) are projected to offset blast furnace cost increases (+25,000 KRW/ton), maintaining slight spread expansion.
- Temporary volume decrease in lithium due to equipment replacement at the Argentine brine lake and softer domestic subsidiary earnings are factored into 3Q estimates.
- Corporate Value-Up & Capital Allocation: The company plans to monetize/optimize stakes in listed subsidiaries down to ~50%, utilizing proceeds for proprietary strategic investments and shareholder value enhancement, including new share buybacks and cancellations.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views POSCO Holdings as an integrated industrial holding company that possesses pricing power to protect steel roll margins while concurrently advancing lithium commercialization and capital re-allocation via subsidiary equity monetization. This perspective places higher emphasis on the medium-to-long term structural value of lithium assets and tangible corporate value-up initiatives (such as share buybacks and cancellations) rather than short-term commodity price volatility or temporary maintenance downtime.
To verify whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, investors should monitor the successful implementation of steel price hikes across major downstream sectors in the second half, the volume recovery at POSCO Argentina post-equipment replacement, and the official finalization and execution schedule of listed subsidiary stake monetization tied to share buyback and cancellation programs. These developments can be tracked through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR presentations, and regulatory filings.
📢 Disclaimer & Source
Source: This content has been structured and newly written based on officially disclosed financial facts and data from brokerage reports.
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