Brokerage : Daishin Securities
Analyst : Hyung-keun Ryu (RA: Ji-won Seo)
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 270,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Driven by continuous DRAM/NAND ASP increases amid volume-securing demand from customers, full-year 2026 operating profit forecast is upgraded to KRW 242T alongside strengthening shareholder returns supported by cash accumulation.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained, 6-Month Target Price maintained at KRW 270,000 (Current price as of March 13, 2026: KRW 183,500)
- Key Valuation Multiples (2026F): P/E 6.8x, P/B 2.0x, ROE 36.1%
- Per-Share Metrics (2026F): EPS KRW 27,646, BPS KRW 90,046 (2026F DPS projected at KRW 9,650 including special dividends in text)
- Annual Financial Projections:
- 2024A: Revenue KRW 300.87T, Operating Profit KRW 32.73T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 33.62T
- 2025F: Revenue KRW 333.61T, Operating Profit KRW 43.60T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 44.26T
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 582.91T, Operating Profit KRW 241.76T (Upgraded to KRW 242T from KRW 201T in text), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 186.22T
- 2027F: Revenue KRW 629.88T, Operating Profit KRW 251.37T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 191.90T
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 1Q26 Earnings Preview:
- Projected Revenue of KRW 131T (+39% QoQ, +65% YoY) and Operating Profit of KRW 45T (OPM 35%), beating 1-month consensus (Revenue KRW 118T, Operating Profit KRW 38T)
- 1Q operating profit alone is expected to surpass full-year 2025 operating profit (KRW 43.6T)
- Memory Market Dynamics & ASP Projections:
- Strong ASP growth expected to continue despite high base effects, driven by customers prioritizing volume securing over price resistance
- 2Q26 ASP Growth Estimates: DRAM +29% QoQ (Commodity DRAM +30% QoQ), NAND +19% QoQ
- 2026 Full-Year Operating Margins: DRAM +76% and NAND +47%, projecting company-record profitability
- Non-Memory & Financial Strength Catalysts:
- Cash Generation: Cash and cash equivalents projected to expand from KRW 125T at end-2025 to KRW 229T at end-2026, and KRW 297T at end-2027
- Shareholder Returns: Projected 2026 DPS of KRW 9,650 (including special dividends), with growing medium-to-long-term return expectations supported by FCF expansion
- Non-Memory & Business Portfolio: Competitive recovery in Samsung Foundry with expectations for annual profitability in 2027, backed by ample investment capital and potential AI portfolio M&A opportunities
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electronics as a prime beneficiary of a memory boom, where strong DRAM and NAND ASP gains driven by customers’ priority on securing volume support an upgraded 2026 operating profit forecast of KRW 242T. This perspective places primary emphasis on surging memory profitability and the resulting balance sheet strengthening—demonstrated by cash asset accumulation—which creates room for enhanced shareholder returns and long-term competitiveness recovery in the foundry business.
To verify whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, key verification points include whether realized 1Q operating profit (KRW 45T) and 2Q DRAM/NAND ASP increases (DRAM +29%, NAND +19%) meet forecasts, whether expanding FCF supports the projected 2026 DPS of KRW 9,650 alongside shareholder return execution, and whether Samsung Foundry shows tangible progress toward achieving annual profitability by 2027. These developments can be monitored through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR presentations, regulatory filings, and periodic financial reports.
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