Brokerage : Kiwoom Securities
Analyst : Yu-ak Park
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintained)
Target Price : KRW 260,000 (Maintained)
Core Momentum : Driven by mobile memory rush orders, commodity memory price hikes, and surging 2Q HBM4 shipments, earnings are projected to beat consensus, while HBM market share expansion opportunities emerge amid cache compression-driven demand shifts.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained, Sector Top Pick maintained, Target Price maintained at KRW 260,000 (Current price as of March 27, 2026: KRW 179,700)
- Key Valuation Multiples (2026F): P/E 6.8x, P/B 2.0x, ROE 34.8%, EV/EBITDA 1.1x, Dividend Yield (25E) 6.9%
- Per-Share Metrics (2026F): EPS KRW 26,534 (YoY +302.5%), BPS (25E) KRW 87,708
- Annual Financial Projections:
- 2024: Revenue KRW 300.87T, Operating Profit KRW 32.73T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 33.62T
- 2025F: Revenue KRW 333.61T, Operating Profit KRW 43.60T, Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 44.26T
- 2026F: Revenue KRW 563.06T, Operating Profit KRW 226.24T (OP margin 40.2%), Net Profit (Controlling) KRW 175.33T
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- 1Q26 Earnings Preview (Earnings Beat Expected):
- Projected Revenue of KRW 125T (+34% QoQ) and Operating Profit of KRW 43T (+115% QoQ), beating consensus (Revenue KRW 121T, Operating Profit KRW 39.6T)
- Earnings Drivers: Mobile memory rush orders during the quarter drove mobile DRAM and NAND (UFS, eMMC) ASP growth above expectations
- Divisional Notes: Foundry operating losses continue, but increasing 4nm/2nm orders improve visibility for a 2H turnaround; DX operating profit expected to decline -56% YoY due to BOM cost pressures; SDC operating profit projected down -49% YoY
- 2Q26 Outlook:
- Revenue projected at KRW 136T (+9% QoQ) and Operating Profit at KRW 57T (+32% QoQ), exceeding consensus (Revenue KRW 133T, Operating Profit KRW 53.6T)
- HBM4 Surge: HBM shipments projected to surge +331% YoY driven by rapid sales expansion to NVIDIA, expanding market share alongside ongoing commodity DRAM/NAND ASP increases
- 2Q26 Operating Profit Forecast by Segment: DS KRW 55.9T (+35% QoQ), SDC KRW 0.1T (-73% QoQ), DX (MX/NW) KRW 1.2T (-35% QoQ), DX (VD/DA) loss of KRW 0.3T (loss continues)
- Impact of Cache Compression Technologies (TurboQuant & KVTC):
- Application of Google’s TurboQuant and NVIDIA’s KVTC compression technologies is viewed as a negative factor for 2027–2029 server DRAM and eSSD demand
- However, decompression during offloading/onloading requires additional compute activity across GPU/TPU-HBM, creating positive demand for HBM and serving as a market share expansion opportunity for Samsung given its HBM4 competitiveness
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views Samsung Electronics in the near term as an outperforming memory maker delivering an earnings beat toward KRW 57T in quarterly operating profit, supported by mobile memory rush orders, commodity ASP increases, and ramping 2Q HBM4 shipments. Over the medium term, this perspective highlights a structural transition where market concerns regarding 2027–2029 server DRAM and eSSD demand due to cache compression technologies (TurboQuant, KVTC) coexist with opportunities to capture HBM market share through HBM4 technical competitiveness.
To verify whether this investment thesis continues to materialize, key verification points include whether mobile and commodity DRAM/NAND ASP strength persists through 1Q and 2Q, whether 2Q HBM4 shipments to NVIDIA achieve the projected +331% YoY increase and market share gain, whether 4nm/2nm order wins enable a Foundry turnaround in 2H, and how the adoption of cache compression technologies impacts medium-term server memory and HBM demand. These factors can be monitored through upcoming quarterly earnings releases, official IR presentations, regulatory filings, and periodic business reports.
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