Market: KOSPI (017670)
Brokerage : SK Securities
Analyst : Kwan-soon Choi
Investment Rating : BUY (Maintain)
Target Price : KRW 110,000 (Upgraded)
Core Momentum : Operational earnings turnaround and dividend resumption supported by cost stability and subsidiary growth, coupled with visible AI milestones including Anthropic’s equity valuation and national AI project participation.
📊 1. [Valuation & Key Financial Metrics]
- Investment Rating & Target Price: BUY maintained, Target Price raised to KRW 110,000 (from KRW 98,800; 17.3% upside potential based on the April 9, 2026 closing price of KRW 93,800)
- Target Price Methodology: Derived by applying a Target PER of 20x (mid-to-high end of historical valuation bands) to 2026E EPS
- 1Q26 Earnings Forecast (Preview):
- Consolidated Revenue: KRW 4.393 Trillion (-1.4% YoY)
- Consolidated Operating Profit: KRW 526.3 Billion (-7.2% YoY, OPM 12.0%, slightly beating consensus of KRW 507.0 Billion)
- Driven by ARPU growth from 5G expansion, eased marketing competition since February, and declining depreciation expenses
- FY2026 Full-Year Forecast:
- Annual Revenue: KRW 17.841 Trillion
- Annual Operating Profit: KRW 1.858 Trillion (surpassing FY2024 levels, KRW 1.8576 Trillion in body text)
- Annual Net Profit (Controlling Interests): KRW 1.172 Trillion
- 2026E Net Profit Margin: 6.6% / OPM: 10.4%
- Dividends & Shareholder Returns:
- High likelihood of dividend resumption following suspensions in 2H25
- Expected to return to FY2024 dividend baseline (Quarterly DPS: KRW 830, Year-end DPS: KRW 1,050)
🚀 2. [Market Opportunities & Business Outlook]
- Core Earnings Turnaround & Incident Recovery:
- Full recovery past 2025 security incident disruptions, with top-line growth fueled by mobile subscriber additions and expanding data center revenues lifting annual operating profit above FY2024 levels.
- SK Broadband Subsidiary Strength:
- Broad-based gains across core businesses, including broadband and IPTV subscriber net additions and rising data center utilization.
- Visible AI Achievements & Catalysts:
- Anthropic Valuation: Held a 0.3% stake as of end-2025; valuation recognized at $380 Billion post-February 2026 funding round, with potential listing momentum through year-end.
- Government AI Initiatives & AIDC: Multiple near-term catalysts including participation in the government’s sovereign AI foundation model project and construction of the Ulsan AIDC slated for 2027.
📝 Editor’s Comment (Perspective)
The analyst views SK Telecom as an operator successfully navigating past cybersecurity headwinds through subscriber recovery and depreciation stabilization to reinstate an annual operating profit run-rate exceeding KRW 1.85 Trillion and restore historical dividend levels (KRW 830 quarterly, KRW 1,050 year-end). This perspective treats fundamental operational recovery as downside protection, while identifying Anthropic’s rising equity value, participation in sovereign AI foundation model initiatives, and the 2027 Ulsan AIDC buildout as core growth drivers justifying a multiple upgrade to 20x Target PER.
To evaluate whether this investment thesis materializes, key verification points include confirming that 1Q operating profit beats market consensus to establish the ~KRW 1.85 Trillion annual baseline alongside the formal declaration of quarterly dividend payouts (KRW 830 per share), tracking utilization gains across SK Broadband’s data centers, and monitoring tangible execution milestones in the government’s sovereign AI project and Ulsan AIDC construction. These developments can be verified via upcoming quarterly earnings announcements, official IR materials, and periodic DART statutory filings.
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